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美媒:从《孙子兵法》看中印对峙 中国占“势”
2017-08-09 09:49:28 中国经济网
资料图:新疆军区直升机演练低空突防
美国“外交学者”网站8月7日文章,原题:孙子将如何理解中印洞朗对峙 《孙子兵法》称“故善战者,求之于势……故善战人之势,如转圆石于千仞之山者,势也”。从这层意义上来说,在与印度仍在持续进行的洞朗地区争执中,中国占有远比印度更多的“势”。
来自中印双方的历史文件和记录,甚至中英两国在19世纪末签署的条约都支持中国的立场,即洞朗是中国西藏自治区与锡金和不丹交界的一部分,而锡金已在1975年被印度侵占。然而,尽管存在这些历史事实,但毗邻印度的洞朗就像一把“匕首”刺入印度在该地区的势力范围。不顾国际舆论的不利,印度似乎还在迫不及待并随心所欲地改变该地区的现状和规则,但目前的状况强烈暗示印度已将其自身逼入死角,并陷入军事和外交的两难境地。
而从所占据的“势”来说,印度在与中国持续进行的对峙中再次失分,因为印度在对阵的心理上就处于劣势。其实,早在1962年中印领土冲突中,中国士兵就曾如同千仞之山上的圆石从高原上“滚落”并横扫印度军队,导致新德里陷入难以承受的挫败感之中。多年来,这种情绪久久徘徊不去,尤其是在某些印度政客之中,并正在影响印度对当前对峙的反应。
虽然印度国防部长贾特利在今年6月底曾尖锐地指出,“2017年的印度不同于1962年的印度,”但仅有此类虚张声势无法为印度增“势”。现实是,首次在今年6月18日进入洞朗地区的印度士兵超过270人并有两辆推土机,但如今他们其实正在撤退。中国外交部表示,截至8月2日印军仍有48人连同1台推土机非法滞留在中国领土上。在某种程度上,贾特利有关印度正在崛起的说法是正确的。然而,如果说印度的崛起是一种成就的话,那么中国的崛起才是真正的奇迹。这样的对比同样适用于1962年以来印中两国军队的崛起和现代化程度。
即便如此,与印度发生军事冲突绝非中国乐见的选项。北京与新德里之间的合作关系史——例如1955年的万隆会议和此后开展的不结盟运动等——也证明两国(在有关争议问题上)和解并非完全不可能。但在目前与印度的(洞朗)对峙中,对中国来说,最好的结局是不战而屈人之兵,即通过“势”取得胜利。不过,即使事态滑向最糟糕的状况,中国亦将处于有利之势。问题是:新德里究竟在多大程度上愿意阅读并理解正在从北京发出的信息。(作者为韩国延世大学中国研究院研究员金凯,丁雨晴译)
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