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北京这场暴雨到底会下多大?

2017-06-21 20:41:55   

原标题:数据帝:北京的雨到底会下多大?

中国天气网独家报道 这两天朋友圈都在分享帝都的强降雨,有人说是6年来最强暴雨,有人说赶超2012年的7·21暴雨,数据帝的圈外小伙伴都准备好明天请假不上班了……那么,这场雨到底有多厉害?

这一场暴雨势在必下

简单来说,形成降水的关键,就类似拧毛巾,一个要有力气,一个要有水汽。降水的物质来源来自偏南气流从海上输送的水汽,然后遇到合适的环境,被抬升到高空凝结成水滴、冻结成冰晶,然后再因为重力作用落下来。因此,降水最重要的就是水汽和动力这两个基本条件。

这一次,6月22-23日华北就满足以上两个基本条件。暴雨一触即发。不过,一场雨想要下得大,还需要水汽不断地输送,动力抬升不能停。那么这一次有多强呢?

这次不会像2012年的7·21暴雨那么猛

每当北京下大雨,总会有人问会像2012年的7·21暴雨那么大吗?毕竟这场雨在人们的心里,能留下比较重的阴影。

2012年7月21日,北京20小时就下了190.3毫米的大暴雨,相当于26亿立方米的水。那是一次来也匆匆、去也匆匆的强降雨,雨势猛烈,北京1小时雨量普遍达40~80毫米,持续时间达3~4个小时,最强降雨出现在平谷挂甲峪,1小时达100.3毫米,这种雨强在北京地区历史上极为少见。

这次的雨会像2012年的7·21暴雨这样厉害吗?首先,我们先来看水汽条件。这里要提到一个专业术语——露点温度,简单说,就是空气中的水蒸气变为露珠时候的温度叫露点温度,露点温度的值越大,空气中的含水量越大,越容易形成强降雨。

从北京的露点温度预报来看,此次降雨最强的22日露点温度在18-21℃之间。相比于2012年的7·21暴雨,整体的露点温度更低一些。从水汽条件上看,这次的降水过程可能就先天弱于2012年。也就是说,这次降雨可能没有7·21暴雨那么强。

这次是一场长情式降雨 时长堪比2016年的7·20暴雨

还记得去年“7.20”强降雨吗?在印象中,它和2012年的7·21完全没法比。感觉就是雨一直下,也没什么大新闻出现。

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