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巴西金融机构下调今年经济增长和通胀预期

2018-04-10 07:51:45    新华网

当地时间4月9日,巴西央行发布的最新《焦点调查》报告显示,巴西金融机构小幅下调今年经济增长和通胀预期。

该报告汇总巴西主要金融机构100名分析师的意见而成。在报告中,分析师将巴西今年经济增长预期由上周的2.84%下调至2.8%,并将明年经济增长预期维持在3%不变。

分析师同时将该国今年通胀预期由此前的3.54%下调至3.53%,并将明年通胀预期由4.08%上调至4.09%。这是分析师连续第十次下调今年通胀预期。巴西国家货币委员会设定的今明两年通胀率管理目标中值为4.5%,允许上下浮动1.5个百分点,也就是在3%至6%范围内。

至于基准利率,分析师认为,为刺激消费和投资,促进经济全面复苏,在通胀率管控达标的情况下,巴西央行年内将会再次降息,将基准利率从目前的6.5%降至6.25%,再创历史新低,并维持至今年年底。不过,到明年年底前,基准利率将会上调至8%。

汇率方面,分析师预测,到今年底前,巴西雷亚尔与美元的汇率将为3.3比1,而到明年底前,将升至3.39比1。

分析师还预测,今明两年,巴西外贸顺差将分别为550亿美元和450亿美元。而今明两年巴西利用外资额均将达到800亿美元。(记者 莫成雄)

 

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