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美国保护主义执念存在严重缺陷

2018-04-05 07:46:04    新华网

美国政客们没有耐心进行统计分析——他们发现指责别人更容易,指责中国更容易

一年多前,在唐纳德·特朗普的总统就职典礼上,他宣称,“保护主义将带来巨大的繁荣和富强”。特朗普一直认为美国劳工阶层被挤压,中国要对此负责任。依据就是,美中两国间的贸易逆差。

然而,这个论点有严重缺陷。美国制造业就业人数比例已连续65年呈下降趋势,从1953年的32%降至2017年的8.5%。2001年中国加入世界贸易组织时,这一比例已降至12%。从长期看,美国制造业就业人数的变化,反映的是技术变革的强大影响和供应链的日益全球化。

2017年,在美国近8000亿美元的全球贸易逆差中,(按美国官方数据)有47%来自中国。值得注意的是,经济合作与发展组织同世界贸易组织的最新数据表明,这种双边贸易失衡中至少有40%来自于供应链效应,即零部件在中国以外地区生产,但在中国国内完成组装。这意味着,考虑到中国实际生产的附加值,美中贸易赤字占美国全球贸易赤字比例应由47%降至28%左右。

这仍然是一个很大的数字,但远低于特朗普总统和美国商务部的官方数据。虽然国际专业人士对此进行了解释,但这种观点在政治舞台上并不被正视。美国政客们没有耐心进行统计分析——他们发现指责别人更容易,指责中国更容易。

特朗普政府对纠正美中贸易逆差的执念还存在着更严重的缺陷。2017年,美国与全球102个国家的商品贸易存在逆差,这反映了美国国内储蓄的严重不足——2017年美国净储蓄率仅为1.8%,不到20世纪最后30年平均水平6.3%的1/3。由于缺乏国内储蓄以及仍需要消费和增长,美国必须从国外进口剩余储蓄,并通过大额经常项目和多边贸易逆差来吸引外国资本。

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