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委内瑞拉虚拟货币难救经济

2017-12-13 08:50:21   中国经济网

委内瑞拉总统马杜罗日前宣布,推出全新虚拟货币“Petro”以缓解该国的经济危机。

据英国广播公司报道,在电视讲话中,马杜罗称美国的制裁措施是在“封锁”委内瑞拉。他表示这种名为“Petro”的虚拟货币以委内瑞拉的石油、天然气、黄金和钻石财富作后盾,将帮助委“在货币主权问题上取得进展,开展金融交易,并克服金融封锁”。

然而,据路透社报道,委内瑞拉反对派对此不屑一顾,称其生效需要获得国会批准,而且在目前委内瑞拉动荡的局势下,这种数字货币是否可行令人怀疑。

“连纸币都印不起了”

据西班牙《国家报》网站报道,马杜罗说,新的虚拟货币“Petro”将使委内瑞拉向着新的国际资金形式前进,并促进委经济和社会的发展。

委内瑞拉石油公司新任总裁兼石油部长曼努埃尔·克韦多被指派协调创建虚拟货币部门。马杜罗还下令在委国内建造“区块链观察站”,作为推广虚拟货币“Petro”的制度、政治和法律基础。

报道表示,马杜罗将委内瑞拉危机的加剧归结到美国和加拿大政府对查韦斯派高层施加的金融制裁上,并称这是一场企业家和反对派发动的“经济战争”。他还把这场危机归结到最近被控贪腐的国家石油公司前高管的身上。

中国社会科学院拉美研究所研究员谢文泽对国际商报记者表示,委内瑞拉政府推出虚拟货币主要出于三个考虑:首先,节省印制纸币的成本。换句话说,“委内瑞拉连纸币都印不起了”;其次,希望借此摆脱传统货币政策的束缚,因为虚拟货币想用多少就有多少;再次,希望借此摆脱对美元、欧元、人民币等货币的依赖。

委内瑞拉长期依赖石油出口支撑经济发展,但近年来国际油价下跌和欧美国家施加的多项制裁使该国陷入经济和政治危机。国际货币基金组织称,自2014年以来,委内瑞拉的石油产量下降,经济由此萎缩了三分之一。英国广播公司报道称,委内瑞拉欠下的外债高达1400亿~1500亿美元。今年9月,马杜罗宣布,委内瑞拉将在国际支付中使用人民币、欧元、日元、卢布等组成的一揽子货币,替代美元作为国际结算货币,以摆脱对美元的依赖。

治标不治本

对于推出虚拟货币所能达到的效果,受访专家并不看好。

中国现代国际关系研究院拉美研究所副所长孙岩峰对国际商报记者表示,委内瑞拉想用虚拟货币应对经济危机的做法不可行:一方面,委没有足够的外汇支持;另一方面,委缺乏坚实的经济基础支持。并且,委通货膨胀率目前已飙升至4115%,货币玻利瓦尔已贬值96%。可见仅用虚拟货币来应付这一切的客观难度非常大。

黑市汇率追踪网站DolarToday的数据显示,截至11月末,8.4万玻利瓦尔才能兑换1美元,较11月初的4.1万玻利瓦尔兑换1美元下跌逾一倍。而今年年初,该汇率还只有3100:1。

甚至有报道称,委经济正陷入“死亡螺旋”——货币大幅贬值,物价飞涨,食品和药物短缺的情况随处可见。在委内瑞拉国民的眼里,政府的官方汇率已毫无意义。自11月初委政府宣布部分债务违约以来,危机进一步加深。

谢文泽表示,虚拟货币只能作为一种局部的临时措施发挥有限的作用,而作为整体举措的有效性实在有限。在实施上,虚拟货币也面临着两方面的难题:其一,目前该国电子货币和移动支付的普及度达不到大规模实行虚拟货币的要求;其二,该国有移动支付功能的手机的普及度有限,且国民使用虚拟货币的意愿也不高。

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