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美日韩与中俄反导演习撞日,安的什么心?

2017-12-11 13:26:07   中国青年网

根据报道,日本海上自卫队宣布美日韩三国将在11日至12日举行演习,重点加强弹道导弹信息交换以及导弹飞行轨迹追踪能力的演练。同在11日,中俄两军在北京开启“空天安全-2017”中俄第二次首长司令部联合反导计算机演习。双方将通过共同演练防空反导作战筹划、指挥、火力协同等内容,应对弹道导弹和巡航导弹对两国领土的突发性和挑衅性打击。

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据报道,美日韩此次演习在日本附近海域举行,日方将派出金刚级神盾护卫舰“鸟海号”,美韩也会派遣多艘船舰参与,训练主要内容是合作及分享导弹拦截资讯。

中俄两军的首长司令部联合反导计算机演习在北京举行,由中国空军负责承办。

美日韩,中俄,五个国家,三大常任理事国,同一天在亚洲地区海、空域开始反导演习,很容易让外界联想到近来日益紧张的东北亚局势。

这是一场巧合吗?从发布消息的时间上判断,有可能是美日韩“制造”了这一巧合。11月17日,中国国防部就对外公布中俄将于2017年12月11日至16日举行中俄第二次首长司令部联合反导计算机演习。而日方12月10日才对外发布该消息。

美日韩有什么企图?至少有一点,这样的“巧合”是要将东北亚局势进一步搅浑,混淆舆论关注点。这与中国外交部发言人天天苦口婆心劝解“半岛核问题的直接当事方应通过对话谈判解决问题”的意愿背道而驰。美国和韩国12月初刚举行长达五天的“最大规模”空中演习,引发朝鲜强烈反应。平壤表示,这场演习以及美国所发出的不排除进行“先发制人”打击的威胁,释放出了“战争已经无法避免”的信号。

除非是专业人士,普通人大概无法区分这两场反导演习的差异。因为他们是如此相似,“同样是反导演习,同样在亚太地区,以及两场演习参演兵力都非来自一个国家”,尤其最后这一点非常微妙,美日韩同盟,和中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系,看起来是不是刚好掉进了西方舆论所制作出的“中俄同盟”的坑。

弄清楚同盟和伙伴这两个概念非常重要。一位不愿意透露姓名的专业人士对《环球时报》表示,同盟与伙伴有三点重要区别:首先,同盟是以作战为目的的,而伙伴更多以和平为目的;其次,同盟都要有共同的敌人,一国通常不可能与两个敌国同时结盟,而伙伴可以和两个敌国成为伙伴关系。当然不同的伙伴领域不同,深度也不同;第三,结盟通常一定是有主有从,很少有两个盟友完全平等结盟,而伙伴是平等的。这位专家还提示说,严格意义上,美日韩不是同盟,美日是同盟,美韩是同盟。

那么关于美日韩、中俄两场反导演习最重要的差别就出来了。海军军事学术研究所研究员张军社接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示,这两场演习最大的差别在于,中俄演习明确表示不针对第三方,美日韩的目标却是很明确的,假想敌就是朝鲜。中俄反导演习重点是提高两国自身的反导能力,是防御性质的;而美日韩的演习是同盟性质,会刺激朝鲜,可能会引发朝鲜方面的激烈反应,实际上对地区安全稳定不利。

张军社介绍说,“从短期看,美日韩反导演习是针对朝鲜核武器开发和导弹发射,这是很明确的。从长远看,美国是为了在亚太地区建设一体化导弹防御系统做准备,首先是整合美日韩导弹侦察预警系统,而后再逐步实现拦截系统一体化,从而提高美国全球导弹防御系统的拦截能力,实现美国的绝对安全。”

这是美日韩三国第六次举行类似主题的军事演习,中俄在2016年首次组织首长司令部联合反导演习,今年是第二次。

中国导弹技术专家、量子防务首席科学家杨承军在接受《环球时报》记者采访时也指出,这两场演习双方想要达到的目标不同。中俄之间的反导联演是被动的,双方希望通过演练维护和制止地区生乱、生战,通过提高防御能力减少地区爆发战争的可能性。而美日韩演习针对性,指向性非常明确,这种演习只会让地区火药味越来越浓,随时都可以擦枪走火。

此外,目前日本并没有宣布美日韩此次演习是否会动用萨德反导系统,美在韩部署萨德系统严重损害中俄等国战略安全利益,中俄两国对此强烈反对。

杨承军表示,是否启动萨德反导系统并不影响此次演习的性质和宗旨。一个萨德导弹发射营由指挥系统、火控雷达、6部8联装发射装置和48枚拦截弹组成。因为拦截弹要价很高,韩国不会轻易启动。但是萨德配套的侦察系统在演习中一定会启动,天上卫星,地面雷达,网络侦察都会运作,通过这次演习检验萨德侦察系统能不能正常运作,能否对导弹拦截提高情报准确度。

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