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热点问答:美国会不会退出伊核协议

2017-10-12 18:26:54   

新华社北京10月12日电  热点问答:美国会不会退出伊核协议

新华社记者 杨定都

美国总统特朗普将于15日之前,决定是否向国会提供伊朗遵守伊核协议的认证,他还表示将于近日宣布新的对伊政策。

此前,特朗普认定伊朗违背伊核协议精神,批评伊核协议是史上最差协议,是美国的耻辱。分析人士认为,特朗普不向国会提供认证的可能性较大,这将触发国会讨论是否恢复对伊制裁,但并不意味着美国会即刻退出伊核协议。

  特朗普是否真的要退出伊核协议

美国国会《停止执行伊朗核协议的选项》报告指出,特朗普政府可以选择不向国会提供伊朗遵守协议的认证,同时又不主动制裁伊朗,而是由国会在60天内决定是否制裁伊朗。

报告说,特朗普政府采用这一选项,既释放对伊核协议不满的信号,表达修改协议的诉求,同时又不至于令协议遭到实质性破坏。路透社援引美国不具名官员的话说,特朗普并非要退出协议,而是希望修改它。

根据该报告,特朗普其实无需通过国会批准,就可直接退出协议,恢复对伊朗的制裁。美国政府视伊核协议为不具有法律约束力的政治承诺,特朗普具有宣布停止遵守该协议并重启全部或部分对伊制裁的权力。

特朗普甚至可以恢复联合国对伊朗的制裁。根据伊核协议,联合国安理会常任理事国可以否决放松对伊制裁的决议,从而恢复制裁。

  为何威胁退出伊核协议

中国现代国际关系研究院伊朗问题专家秦天认为,比起直接退出伊核协议,再次陷入伊核问题僵局,特朗普政府更希望以退出为威胁,在协议中增加更多遏制伊朗的内容。

特朗普政府希望在伊核协议中增加的主要内容包括:永久限制伊朗铀浓缩活动,而不是协议规定的从2025年起部分放松;将限制伊朗弹道导弹项目和伊朗在中东的军事动作纳入核谈判。

分析人士指出,遏制伊朗是特朗普政府中东棋局的关键所在。在一些美国人看来,伊朗正在挤压美国传统盟友沙特阿拉伯、以色列等国在中东的影响力,撬动美国中东霸权的基石。

从另一角度看,特朗普反对伊核协议,也是延续了共和党的一贯立场。正是由于共和党反对,当时奥巴马政府签署伊核协议后,并没有寻求国会将协议作为条约通过,因而伊核协议不具备条约的法律地位,对特朗普政府的约束力有限。

  将会造成哪些影响

特朗普政府反对伊核协议的立场,已经导致美国在这一问题上在国际社会陷入孤立。

今年8月31日,国际原子能机构出台最新报告,再次确认伊朗履行了协议。在9月举行的联合国大会上,欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表莫盖里尼强调,伊核协议得到了完全执行,没有违反的情况,无需重新谈判。

伊朗总统鲁哈尼表示,伊朗绝不会主动破坏伊核协议,但会坚决回应任何违反协议的行为。

欧洲毗邻中东,一些欧洲国家担忧伊核协议一旦遭到破坏,将导致中东局势更加紧张,甚至引发核扩散,危及自身安全。法国外长让-伊夫·勒德里昂说,如果美国退出伊核协议,伊朗将会恢复核计划,进而在中东地区引发核军备竞赛。

伊核协议得到了包括美国欧洲盟友在内的其他世界主要大国的支持,如果美国不顾反对,执意退出已经签署的协议,将损害美国的国际信誉。美国观察家丹尼尔·戴维斯在美国《国家利益》网站撰文说:“如果朋友不能信任我们作出的承诺,对手会更不相信我们,这将造成不可估量的风险。”

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