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美联储官员的纠结:希望年内再加息 却又对低通胀忐忑不安

2017-10-12 08:41:54   

北京时间10月12日凌晨,美联储发布公开市场委员会(FOMC)9月会议纪要。在此次会议上,美联储维持基准利率不变,同时预测今年底之前还会再加息一次,并宣布10月开始逐步缩减4.5万亿美元的资产负债表。

会议纪要暗示,2017年再加息一次的预期是以经济数据显示通胀目标将会在未来几年内达成作为条件的。几位委员会成员表示,他们对于今年是否再次加息的决定将主要依赖于未来几个月的经济数据是否能提振他们对通胀率将向2%目标回升的信心。

关于通胀预期方面的分歧依然很大。“多位”委员会成员预计,美国薪资增幅将扩大,通胀将朝着美联储2%通胀目标回升,虽然速度会比预料的慢得多;但也有“多位”成员担心,今年的低通胀数据可能不是暂时的,低通胀的影响可能更持久。会议纪要显示,有成员表示担忧,通胀率持续低企可能意味着潜在的趋势低于2%,从而使得通胀预期面临下降风险,那么,他们进而认为,适当的政策路径应该考虑增强通胀预期的必要性,以确保通胀率能回升到2% 。

会议纪要显示,“多位”成员仍然认为,劳动力市场的压力最终会导致通货膨胀的上升。可是,低失业率并没有转化为持续更高的薪资或通货膨胀。8月美国CPI同比涨幅为1.4%,并且在过去五年的大部分时间里都低于其2%的目标。同时,美国9月失业率下降至4.2%,是2001年以来的最低水平,而平均时薪同比上涨2.9%,这个涨幅回升可能部分与两大飓风的影响相关。会议纪要显示,委员会成员预计第三季度经济增速“由于暴风雨造成的严重干扰而受到打压,但随着重建工作的进行,以及受影响地区的经济活动恢复,第四季度经济料开始反弹。”

一些成员也注意到白宫政策的不确定性,尽管特朗普政府对税改不乏溢美之词,但多数成员在9月的预测中没有假设财政刺激的可能性,部分成员还认为财政刺激计划在近期宣布的可能性进一步下降,财政刺激的规模也有可能低于此前的预期。多位成员表示,美国的金融条件将有助于经济的扩张,部分成员担心当前资产价格偏高,长端收益率偏低宽松的金融条件将会对金融稳定构成风险。

FOMC今年最后两次会议将分别于美国东部时间10月31日-11月1日以及12月12日-13日举行。

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