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外媒称安倍闪电实施大选是危险赌博:“靠直觉行事”恐失算

2017-09-27 18:27:51   

外媒称,日本首相安倍晋三决定在9月28日召集的临时国会伊始解散众议院。决定闪电式解散的背景是自民党秘密实施的局势调查。安倍也做好了自民党议席减少的准备,决定赌一把。

安倍6月已开始考虑提前大选

《日本经济新闻》网站9月26日刊登题为《安倍闪电实施大选是危险一赌》的报道称,9月10日,尽管是周日晚上,安倍仍然在东京富谷的家中邀请了盟友、副总理兼财务相麻生太郎。在谈了一会政治相关的话题之后,麻生说:“要不要回忆一下岸信介和川岛正次郎的话?”

9月25日,日本首相安倍晋三在东京首相官邸举行的记者会上回答记者提问。 新华社发

在原彬久编写的《岸信介证言录》(中公文库出版)中,岸信介对1960年的一件事后悔不已:“坚信在大选中一定能胜出,当时解散就好了”。岸信介当时以首相的身份访美,签署了《日美安全保障条约修订版》。原打算随后立即解散众议院,但遭到时任干事长川岛的强烈反对而放弃。之后安保斗争激化,岸信介以让条约通过为条件辞职。

距离上届众议院选举已经过去2年零9个月。期间有过好几次解散的良机,但安倍的助手、官房长官菅义伟的态度始终比较慎重,认为“现在解散只会让议席减少”。

“自民党单独获得一半以上议席就足够了”,安倍从6月前后开始这样对周围的人说。安倍并非放弃了修宪的念头,而是考虑了另一个战略,即在最大在野党民进党一盘散沙的情况下,即使执政党没有足够的议席数也能拉拢在野党的修宪派。不过,菅义伟等人担心,如果议席数较当前数量大幅减少,势必会遭到党内的批评,安倍也理解这种担心,因此一直未能做决定。

安倍在见麻生之前,从自民党方面获得了最近的局势调查结果。结果显示,如果现在举行众议院选举,虽然议席将跌破2/3,但执政党最低能获得280多个议席。虽然减少约40个议席,但如果推迟解散,有可能进一步丧失议席。菅直人仍对解散持慎重态度,但麻生支持了感到矛盾的安倍。

安倍在接下来的9月11日,将联合执政的公明党党首山口那津男叫到官邸。暗示出年内解散的可能性,但没有宣布在临时国会伊始果断实施。安倍在等待自民党的进一步调查。数天后,调查结论仍是自民党与公明党两党能获得280个议席。

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