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俄罗斯为啥有那么多“诈弹”

2017-09-21 07:52:40   新华网

近一周以来,俄罗斯各大城市频频遭遇虚假炸弹威胁报警电话袭扰,截至目前,有关部门已疏散超过18万民众,并在近600个公共场所进行了爆炸物品排查。这到底是恶作剧,还是精心策划的挑衅?

谁是“主谋”大猜想

分析人士称,这波匿名恐怖电话浪潮历时久、范围广、规模大,组织策划的可能性较大。中国现代国际关系研究院反恐问题专家李伟表示,幕后黑手有以下几种可能:

一是俄境内恐怖组织“北高加索酋长国”。该组织长期以来对俄罗斯的安全构成严峻挑战,其袭击特点是专挑交通设施、公共场所下手,制造恐怖混乱局面。

上海社科院俄罗斯中亚研究中心常务副主任李立凡认为,这次匿名恐怖电话是通过网络拨打,俄联邦的通讯平台是打通的,比如俄最大电信运营商俄罗斯电信在车臣就有发射台和终端,易被车臣武装分子等俄境内恐怖组织利用。

第二种可能是与“伊斯兰国”(IS)有关的国际恐怖势力。但李立凡认为,让IS“背锅”似嫌牵强。首先,虽然IS叫嚣要报复国际反恐力量,但是IS 的重点目标是美国和欧洲国家,而不是俄罗斯。其次,IS通常会采取自杀式炸弹之类更简单暴力的手段,用电话警告不像IS的风格。

第三种可能是黑客。据俄媒报道,部分匿名报警电话通过国际虚拟运营商的IP电话拨打,并且很可能借助某种病毒程序,“据此不排除黑客组织制造事端的可能”,李伟说。俄《独立报》援引信息安全和情报专家安德烈·马萨洛维奇的话说,这些电话是黑客袭击的新变种,意在制造动荡局势。

“电话恐怖主义”性价比高

眼下,俄罗斯已将事件定性为“电话恐怖主义”。莫斯科刑事侦查警官谢尔盖表示,“电话恐怖主义”虽然不动用一般意义上的恐怖袭击手段,但却能造成高度的心理紧张,且让人们长期处在惊慌失措的状态中。也就是说,不动用真枪实弹,就能够制造“性价比”比较高的恐怖效果。第二,它还能带来经济损失。俄《独立报》称,恐怖电话仅在莫斯科就带来超过1.7亿卢布(约合1930万元人民币)的商业损失。

“电话恐怖主义”并非刚刚涌现的新事物。曾供职于苏联克格勃反恐分队的上校弗拉基米尔·卢采恩科表示,“电话恐怖主义”在上世纪90年代也曾有过,并达到高潮,甚至连在癌症中心接受治疗、刚做完手术的孩子们都受此袭扰。此外,这种情况在德国、西班牙和英国也时有出现。

卢采恩科表示,在过去,犯罪分子使用自动收费公用电话谎称炸弹,打完电话就开溜,但如今他们更狡猾地借助网络和手机拨打电话。如果这些“恐怖分子”在国外,那么就更难抓住他们。俄媒称,本轮匿名恐怖电话是通过网络拨号,恐怖分子还使用了多个网络电话服务器,且彼此联络广泛使用加密技术,导致追查来源难上加难。

这波神秘“诈弹”电话到底因何而起,又是谁在操控,随着俄方调查的深入,或许真相会逐步浮出水面。(廖勤 张全)

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