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互动频频 日印“眉来眼去 贴身热舞”啥盘算?

2017-09-13 06:51:27   新华网

日本首相安倍晋三将于13日访问印度,届时出席印度高铁项目奠基仪式。按日本自民党高官的说法,印度高铁是一项标志性项目,意味着日印关系迈入“新时代”。

日印高层近年互动频频,双方在政治、经济、防务领域的合作不断升级,且更具战略性、更加紧密。分析人士解读,日印“眉来眼去”实则互有需求。

  【各怀心思 反潜合作剑指谁】

在中国国际问题研究院南亚问题专家李青燕看来,日印两国“走得近”是各有盘算和需求:日本希望借助与印度的合作扩展在南亚和印度洋地区的影响力;而印度则一方面利用日本的资金弥补自身经济实力的不足,另一方面又试图通过与日本发展“同盟”关系,来减弱美国唐纳德·特朗普政府带来的不确定性冲击。

“当然,这其中很重要的一个因素,是两者互相视对方为平衡地区力量的‘天然盟友’,在这方面,双方一拍即合。”李青燕说,“印度经济、社会各方面的发展水平仍旧较低,而当前日印两国经济发展互补性较强,这也是它们互相看好双边关系发展前景的重要原因。”

在双方众多合作领域中,防务领域的合作动向最值得关注。

就在几天前,当时还兼任印度国防部长的财政部长阿伦·贾伊特利访问日本,两国防长一致同意加强双边作战演练并开展更多军事装备和技术交流。特别是,日印防长在联合声明中提及,两国不仅将加强反潜领域的军事技术合作,还将在明年举行的美印日“马拉巴尔”海上联合军演中加入反潜演练,演习中预计还会出现日本P-1反潜巡逻机的身影。

反潜作战被视为军事技术敏感领域。云南财经大学国际工商学院一带一路国际问题研究中心特聘研究员、军事分析师邰丰顺说,航空反潜作为较有效的反潜手段,一直受到各个海上强国的重视。

“从综合性能来看,日本的P-1反潜巡逻机较为先进,但它的研制速度和采购成本都超过了预期,”邰丰顺说,“受这一因素影响,日本很可能通过各个展示机会,向外界推销这款反潜巡逻机。”

  【定位调整 意图提升地位】

除日本外,印度近两年与美国也是合作频繁。去年4月,印美签署《后勤保障协议》、同意与美军分享军事基地后,印度的做法被视为“抛弃了数十年来与美国不结盟的立场”;5月,西方媒体传出消息,称印美正商讨加强在反潜作战方面的合作。

分析人士认为,不难看出,印度近年来动作频频,意图提升自身国际地位、实现其“大国雄心”。

李青燕说,印度当前在国际上所处的环境和条件相对较好,很大程度上在于美国、日本等西方国家视印度为平衡亚太地区力量的重要角色,并期待其发挥更大作用。另有分析指出,虽然印度“雄心勃勃”,但其经济发展面临很大困难,短期内很难有所作为。(闫洁)(新华社专特稿)

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