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艾尔玛来袭 专家:气候变化让超强飓风成新常态

2017-09-08 09:32:23   中国青年网

五级飓风“艾尔玛”继续在加勒比地区肆虐,并逐渐向西北方向推进,进入人口稠密地区。据英国广播公司(BBC)报道,受“艾尔玛”影响的人口预计将从120万人迅速增加至约2600万人。

当地时间7日,“艾尔玛”横扫多米尼加和海地之后,目前继续向英属特克斯和凯科斯群岛以及巴哈马及美国佛罗里达州方向移动。据美国有线新闻网(CNN)报道,美国国家飓风中心7日称,“艾尔玛”在佛罗里达州南部登录的可能性增大,并将影响美国的多个州。

另据路透社报道,“艾尔玛”预计会在周日登陆佛罗里达,并减弱至四级飓风。

“艾尔玛”是有气象记录以来大西洋上最强飓风之一,目前仍是破坏力极强的五级飓风(飓风的最高等级)。它7日在影响多米尼加和海地时,风力稍稍减弱至每小时280公里。此前,“艾尔玛”在横扫多个加勒比小岛时,风力接近每小时300公里,并造成至少10人死亡。巴布达岛和法属圣马丁岛的房屋几乎全部被摧毁,许多人无家可归。

7日,“艾尔玛”让海地暴雨成灾。海地民防机构说,积水已达一英尺(约30厘米),许多房屋浸在水中,有两人受伤。

上月底,飓风“哈维”登陆美国,造成至少30人死亡。半个月内,大西洋连续生成超强飓风,也让人开始关注超强飓风与气候变化之间的关系。而德国波茨坦研究所的气候专家警告,如果不采取措施应对气候变化,飓风、极端天气的强度将会增加。

据德国媒体报道,德国波茨坦气候后果研究所所长舍恩胡伯(Joachim Schellnhuber)7日在柏林表示:“我可以向您保证,学术界有足够的证据证明,飓风风力越来越强,与气候变化有关。”他警告说,这还只是一个开始,“如果我们不落实巴黎协定,这样的事件会成为新常态。”

舍恩胡伯说,“艾尔玛”具有灾难性的潜在破坏力。该飓风风力打破测量记录。

波茨坦气候后果研究所的学者莱沃曼(Anders Levermann)也认为,极端天气的强度将增加。他说,尽管无法确认个别现象如飓风“艾尔玛”、“哈维”与气候变化存在直接关联,“过去也有强飓风”,但明确的是,地球变暖使更多能量和湿度进入大气层。

莱沃曼表示,湿度的增加可以通过强降雨来释放,比如今年在南亚造成严重洪水的雨季。飓风的能量则来自水体表面。“当大气变暖,海洋变暖,飓风就从中获得毁灭性的力量。”

在巴黎举行的2015年联合国气候会议制定的目标,要将全球变暖幅度限制在1.5-2摄氏度以内,显著减少温室气体排放。但美国总统特朗普宣布,美国退出巴黎协定。

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