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专家:俄强硬回应萨德实属必然 反应值得喝彩

2017-09-06 09:42:17   中国网

韩国国防部4日表示,随着环境部对“萨德”基地小规模环评得出“有条件同意”的结果,剩余4辆“萨德”发射车将很快部署完毕,俄罗斯对此做出了激烈反应。俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫称,美国在俄边界部署“萨德”系统后,莫斯科将把自己的针对性军事反应提上日程。

俄强硬的反“萨德”立场,不仅是由于“萨德”的部署加剧了朝鲜半岛的紧张局势,削弱了俄罗斯的战略威慑能力,更深层次的原因是对近来美俄外交关系到达“冰点”的霸气回应。

乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯面临西方巨大的政治、经济和军事压力。俄罗斯与西方的政治互信降至冷战后的最低水平。今年7月底,美国国会通过了对俄新一轮制裁的法案,为特朗普政府改善对俄关系戴上了“紧箍咒”,短期内俄美改善关系已经没有希望。俄罗斯随后大规模驱逐美国外交官,美国则违反国际法,关闭并搜查俄罗斯领事馆,本就十分冷淡的双边关系近来更是风雨交加。

在军事安全领域,美国更是对俄罗斯实施东西双线夹击。北约在波兰、立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚部署4个营的多国部队,在爱沙尼亚部署反导系统,俄罗斯西部面临的压力可想而知。在远东,美国利用朝核问题投棋布子,加强美日韩同盟,加快部署反导系统,从战略上削弱俄罗斯的核导威慑。在夹击之下,俄罗斯战略安全与外交上已经没有太多的回旋余地。这是俄罗斯激烈反对“萨德”根本原因。

缓解压力、摆脱外交孤立局面、寻找外交突破口,已成今日俄罗斯面临的最大挑战。俄罗斯地跨欧亚两大洲,领土辽阔,拥有得天独厚的战略纵深。从根本上说,俄罗斯的战略核心区在欧洲。俄罗斯十分善于利用自身的地缘优势,展开战略腾挪,声东击西。俄罗斯副外长强硬表示将军事回应“萨德”,不仅可以在东方表达对于美韩军事部署的不满,赢得道义上的主动,而且有助于在西方与美国寻求突破,缓和关系,摆脱外交的被动局面。

俄罗斯对待“萨德”的强硬态度,也有利于加强与中国的关系。中方一直强烈反对美韩不顾地区国家的反对部署萨德系统。中俄步调协调一致,自然有助于向外部世界展示中俄全面战略合作的高水平。很显然,在中美俄三角关系中,俄中越是接近,俄罗斯对美国的博弈地位越是有利。

总的来看,俄罗斯强硬反对“萨德”是其外交环境和外交战略的反映。无论战斗民族是否能够缓和与美国的关系,都可以赢得外交上的主动。如果美韩在压力面前最终撤销了部署计划,自然会减少俄罗斯在远东面临的军事压力。如果美国执意加强在朝鲜半岛的军事部署,俄罗斯则会占据道义上的优势。

俄罗斯的反应值得喝彩,不仅因为中国同样反对在朝鲜半岛部署“萨德”,更重要的是以暴制暴、通过军事对抗解决国际冲突已然不符合时代的潮流。当今世界处在大变革、大调整时期,国家之间的相互依存不断加深,全球性挑战不断增加,依靠权力追求利益,依靠权力制衡维护和平,难有赢家。只有通过和平谈判,重建国家间互信,共同寻求地区合作机制,才是解决问题的根本之道。这条道路适用剑拔弩张的朝鲜半岛,也适用于激烈对抗的美俄。(作者分别是外交学院俄罗斯研究中心主任、教授,外交学院硕士生)

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