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印度“废钞令”不见效?大量“黑钱”流入银行

2017-09-01 06:51:23   新华网

为打击腐败、“黑钱”和假币,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪去年下达“废钞令”,面额500卢比和1000卢比的纸币自此退出市场。

作为印度中央银行,印度储备银行最近公布的年度报告显示,截至今年6月30日,价值15.28万亿卢比(约合1.58万亿元人民币)的废钞回收至银行系统,回收率高达99%。一些经济分析师认为,这个数字意味着大量以现金形式持有的“黑钱”实际也被存入银行,而非按照政策预想被作废,“废钞令”效果不佳。

【“黑钱”钻空】

去年11月8日晚,莫迪发表全国电视讲话,宣布为打击腐败、猖獗的黑钱交易和假币,废除市面上流通的旧版500卢比和1000卢比两种面值货币,当天午夜起立即生效。货币持有者可凭有效证件在去年11月10日至12月30日把旧币存入银行,以旧换新。

旧版500卢比和1000卢比在印度流通量巨大,废钞前总价值共计15.44万亿卢比(1.59万亿元人民币),约占全部流通货币的85%。

按照“废钞令”决策者的设想,由于害怕身份曝光,以现金形式持有“黑钱”的犯罪分子不会冒险把旧币存入银行,将导致他们手中积压的货币无法以旧换新,大量非法现金将借此被作废。然而,事实却大相径庭。

英国广播公司8月30日报道,印度央行年度报告第195页显示,截至6月30日,99%的旧版500卢比和1000卢比已回收至银行系统。

印度经济分析师维韦克·考尔说,合理的解释是,大量“黑钱”现金持有者借助他人的合法身份,把所持纸币存入银行系统。也就是说,这些“黑钱”非但没有按设想被作废,反而流入银行,参与以旧换新。

按照考尔的说法,就打击假币而言,“废钞令”同样没有取得显著成效。

印度央行报告显示,2016年4月至2017年3月,印度共发现面值合计57.4万卢比(5.9万元人民币)的旧版500卢比和1000卢比假钞,而前一年、即“废钞令”未实行前,这一数字为40.4万卢比(4.2万元人民币)。

因此,在考尔看来,“废钞令”在打击“黑钱”和假币两大目标上都失败了。

【经济受损】

一些经济分析师认为,除了没有达到预期效果,“废钞令”还对印度经济造成冲击,许多经济领域增速明显放缓。

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