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美国不会从阿富汗撤军!特朗普下的什么棋?

2017-08-23 08:20:37   中国青年网

新华网北京8月23日电 (郝斐然 栗一星)当地时间21日晚,美国总统特朗普公布美国对阿富汗战争的新战略:这场战争还得继续打,美国不会从阿富汗撤军,而且还将投入更多兵力,直到“胜利”为止。

特朗普(资料图)

阿富汗问题一直是特朗普的“一道坎”,让他难以抉择。政府内部曾出现过全面撤军的讨论。他本人也强调“本能的感觉是从阿富汗抽身,但是坐在椭圆形办公室做决定‘非常不同’。”特朗普此时为何改变最初撤军的想法?中国国际问题研究院研究员杨希雨分析有两点原因。

杨希雨认为,首先是由于阿富汗最近局势所迫。美军完全有能力在短期内把军队撤出阿富汗,但当前极端组织“伊斯兰国”在叙利亚、伊拉克被定点清除,其残余势力作鸟兽散之后,很有可能向其他地区转移。任何混乱的地区都可能成为“伊斯兰国”再度兴起的温床,阿富汗尤其如此。

特朗普强调,美国在阿富汗不寻求国家重建,而将重点放在打击恐怖分子上。他指出,美国在阿富汗取得胜利的标志包括打击敌人、消灭“伊斯兰国”和“基地”组织以及杜绝针对美国的大规模恐袭发生。

据悉,特朗普目前已授权国防部长马蒂斯确定美国驻阿富汗军队的规模,此举将赋予马蒂斯调整目前驻阿美军规模上限的权力。美国媒体普遍报道称,马蒂斯预计将向阿富汗增兵约4000人。

特朗普的新战略对阿富汗有何影响?杨希雨认为,美国是否撤军的决定的确会对阿富汗当地的稳定程度有影响,但是一味地依靠军事力量无法使阿富汗局势正常化。只有在保持稳定情况下,寻求政治解决阿富汗问题才是唯一的出路:“目前特朗普政府似乎还没有把重点放在政治解决上,而是将重点放在延长美军在阿富汗的存在,这很有可能令美国陷入不可自拔的战争泥潭。美国目前握有留下或者离开的主动权,但是如果局势继续恶化,美国可能在将来被迫退出阿富汗。”

除了提到美国不能接受从阿富汗撤军,特朗普还在其演讲中的南亚战略方面提到了印度,称希望印度能为阿富汗的地区经济援助和发展出力,并表示美国愿进一步发展与印度的战略伙伴关系。特朗普在拉拢印度的同时,还不忘对巴基斯坦施压,他说:“巴基斯坦和美国合作将获益很多,但如果继续为犯罪分子和恐怖主义者提供庇护将遭遇重大损失。”

对此,杨希雨表示,特朗普的表态一方面体现出美国高度重视印度在解决阿富汗问题的作用,希望印度出力,以多边形式解决阿富汗问题;另一方面,也体现出美国对巴基斯坦的失望,美国此前曾指责巴基斯坦为塔利班武装提供避难场所和其他帮助。不过,杨希雨强调,巴基斯坦对美国的作用好比“双刃剑”,美国不会将巴基斯坦推向对立面,那样更无益解决阿富汗问题。

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