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认领巴塞罗那恐袭,IS欲刷存在感

2017-08-19 07:57:18   新华网

西班牙,一日之内多地发生恐怖事件。当地时间17日晚,西班牙巴塞罗那市中心发生货车撞人袭击事件,已导致13人死亡,100多人受伤。当天,在巴塞罗那西南部的海滨城市坎布里尔斯,警方又执行了一次“反恐行动”,当场打死4名嫌疑人,1名嫌疑人伤重毙命。与此同时,在巴塞罗那一处交通检查站,1名汽车司机开车袭击多名警察。但警方未透露坎布里尔斯的反恐行动和检查站袭警是否与巴塞罗那恐袭有关。

目前,极端组织“伊斯兰国”(IS)已经宣布对巴塞罗那货车撞人事件负责。

IS此前也认领过不少恐袭,但结果显示并非IS组织成员所为,而是一些受到极端思想影响的本土移民群体或者边缘人群。这次袭击会不会又是IS冒领?

中国现代国际关系研究院军控与反恐研究所副所长郭晓兵认为,IS的作案动机还是存在的。因为IS目前的处境并不妙,其已丢失在伊拉克的“大本营”摩苏尔,叙利亚的“国都”拉卡也岌岌可危,无论是俄罗斯、叙利亚与伊朗联军,还是以美国为首的反恐联军都在围剿拉卡。IS的地盘正被极度压缩,恐怖分子日益外流。

如果IS此时保持低调,不在世界其他地区兴风作浪,其影响力和号召力会逐步减弱。相反,通过发动袭击,可以彰显存在感,向全球极端分子和激进分子表明,IS已转移阵地,而且仍在坚持战斗。这样也便于IS通过网络传播或其他手段继续募集资金和人员。

反恐专家李伟也认为,从现场嫌犯的言行,比如宣称袭击旨在报复美国为首的国际联盟对IS的打击,可以认为IS策划实施的可能性较大。

至于为何选择西班牙作为目标,在李伟看来,这并非刻意挑选,其实在IS眼中,欧洲国家一同参与美国打击IS,都是IS报复和袭击的对象。包括西班牙、英国、法国、德国、比利时、丹麦等都被纳入其袭击范畴。至于何时发起袭击,取决于内外两个因素,一是,在国际上,IS向全球追随者和激进分子发起号召。二是,恐袭对象国内部是否存在同情和支持IS的人员可资利用。

西班牙曾在2004年发生过“3·11”马德里恐袭事件。李伟表示,与法国等其他欧洲国家相比,西班牙也存在移民群体融入主流社会的问题,但是文化冲突、社会撕裂程度并不特别尖锐突出。不过,西班牙的安全形势也不容乐观。据西班牙媒体报道,美国中央情报局曾在两个月前警告巴塞罗那警方市内著名景点兰布拉大街很可能发生恐袭。

郭晓兵补充道,过去活跃在西班牙的是巴斯克恐怖组织,伊斯兰恐怖活动不是特别明显。但是,鉴于西班牙也是北非难民、移民进入欧洲的一个通道,也面临巨大的安全压力,容易被IS钻这个欧洲安全防范松懈的“空子”。

迄今,英国、法国、德国、比利时、瑞典、丹麦,乃至西班牙都无一幸免于恐怖魔掌,分析人士指出,选择任何一个欧洲国家发动袭击,都能造成巨大的轰动效应,吸引国际社会的广泛关注。巴塞罗那货车撞人事件是欧洲国家深受恐袭威胁的缩影,将引发其他欧洲国家的紧张,会对欧洲一体化产生较大冲击,将影响欧洲内部的人员、物资流通。随着恐袭不断增多,安全承受巨大压力,申根协定能否坚持下去都可能会打一个问号。廖勤

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