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美国正走向“新内战”?弗吉尼亚种族骚乱引“内战”担忧
抗议人群将一座有90多年历史的士兵雕像拉倒,然后欢呼雀跃,朝雕像吐口水,使劲踩踏……这一幕有点儿像2003年4月美军在巴格达拉倒萨达姆雕像时的场景,但它发生在2017年8月14日的美国。连日来,弗吉尼亚骚乱事件引发的怒火越烧越旺,美国反“白人至上”示威持续不断,以致有媒体形容这是一场“文化战争”。一个危机接一个危机,这成了特朗普就任总统以来的一大“特色”,问题是美国吃得消吗?“美国正走向新型的内战吗?”有美国媒体不无焦虑地问道。
据美国媒体报道,盖洛普最新民调显示,特朗普的支持率仍在继续下滑。最新数据显示,他的总体支持率为34%,创上台以来新低。共和党人对特朗普的支持率从82%跌至77%,而独立选民的支持率则降至29%。而且,这项调查是在11日至13日3天进行的,暴力骚乱事件还未充分发酵。
“美国正走向一种新型内战吗?”《纽约客》14日不无担忧地写道,弗吉尼亚种族主义冲突之后一天,该州州长发问:“我们怎么走到了这一步?”夏洛茨维尔以及弗格森、达拉斯等一系列致命暴力事件后,美国人或许更该提出这样一个问题:美国正在走向何方?这个长期被视为世界最稳定民主体系的国家到底多脆弱?文章称,当前的危险比连续暴力事件的叠加还要大。公益机构“南部贫困法律中心”今年2月指出:“过去半年来极端右翼势力进入政治主流的势头超过过去半个世纪。”该机构统计显示,美国有超过900个活跃的仇恨组织,这个数字还在增加。
曾在美国特种部队、联合国任职,现在美国国务院工作的凯斯·迈恩斯过去16年间曾介入阿富汗、哥伦比亚、萨尔瓦多、伊拉克、索马里和苏丹等国内战。16年后返回华盛顿,他发现美国国内的局面跟国外冲突酝酿阶段相似。今年3月,《外交政策》杂志请迈恩斯等国家安全问题专家评估美国再次爆发内战的可能性。迈恩斯认为美国今后10到15年爆发内战的概率为60%。其他专家的预计概率在5%到95%之间。专家最后统一认为内战爆发概率为35%,这一判断足以令人警醒。要知道这个判断是在夏洛茨维尔事件5个月前做出的。
“深刻的社会危机”,德国《焦点》周刊称,夏洛茨维尔事件让世界看到一个分裂的美国社会,美国的种族主义经过上百年努力仍没有消除。其背后是美国政治、社会经济的问题,美国必须解决贫富悬殊、底层就业和暴力事件等问题。【环球时报驻美国、德国特约记者 李勇 青木 魏辉 甄翔】
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