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缩表渐近 美政府拟增发债维持运行

2017-08-04 07:32:23   中国经济网

部分美联储官员8月2日表示,尽管近期美国通胀率走软,但美联储仍将继续推进货币政策正常化,备受关注的缩表对市场影响有限。但趋于缩紧的流动性和市场融资规模,令美国政府财务吃紧,财政部计划增发债券以维持政府运营开支。

旧金山联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯8月2日在拉斯维加斯一场活动上表示,近期美国通胀率走软的原因是药品、通讯服务等价格下降。他说,随着这些暂时性因素的消退,经济将继续保持增长势头,通胀率将在未来一两年回升至美联储2%的目标。

威廉姆斯预计,美国失业率今年将继续小幅下降,明年将维持在4%以上。他认为,由于美国经济已经达到充分就业水平,美联储应继续缓慢加息以避免经济过热。

如今多数决策者认为经济接近于全面运转,美联储7月的声明称可能在相对较短时期内开始缩减债券持仓。美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)此前表示,这一进程将在年底前开始。

克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长梅斯特尔当天在另一场活动上也表示,药品和通讯服务等价格走低导致近期通胀率走低,未来几个月,这些因素将消失。梅斯特尔明年将在美联储决策会议上获得投票权。她说,预计美联储将很快启动缩减资产负债表计划,同时今年还有一次加息,这“会有助于延续经济扩张,而不是拖累扩张”,同时避免经济过热导致投资者“过度冒险”以至于动摇金融体系。

梅斯特尔还称,美联储不应对通胀低迷“反应过度”。“9月前还有几个通胀报告,因此我会密切关注,看看这样的疲势是否只是特殊情况,抑或是否有更多的东西。”梅斯特尔在一个会议后对媒体称。

另外,波士顿联邦储备银行行长罗森格伦当天在接受美国媒体《华尔街日报》采访时也表示,美联储可能最早于今年9月开始缩减资产负债表,而今年仍有一次加息机会。

罗森格伦说,相较于近期通胀率走低,他更担心就业市场过热风险。他说,失业率已经降至4.4%,并有可能在未来两年降至4%以下,这种情况不可持续。罗森格伦表示,波士顿联储管辖地区明显出现招工难问题,未来工资上涨是大概率事件。他说,随着就业市场进一步收紧,工资以及通胀率将会回升。

不过,也有不少美联储官员近期表示,他们希望在下次加息之前看到美国通胀水平回升。美联储理事布雷纳德近期表示,等美联储启动缩表后,她会密切关注通胀形势来决定是否需要进一步加息。

紧缩路径下美国政府财政问题再度浮出水面。美国财政部8月2日表示,预期能在9月底前为政府提供足够资金,但国会需要尽快提高借款额度。财政部借款咨询委员会在当日发布的一份声明中强调了提高借款额度的紧迫性和重要性。该委员会每季度举行一次会议并宣布融资计划,先于财政部发布的再融资声明。

财政部同时表示,一旦美联储开始缩减其庞大的资产组合,财政部可能会扩大国债和息票债券的拍卖规模,以应对上升的借款需求。财政部借款咨询委员会指出,财政部应考虑扩大所有拍卖的规模,同时逐步增加短期国债在所有债券中的比例。该委员会也对潜在的溢出效应和美联储缩减资产负债表的风险提出警告。

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