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[环球时报综合报道]美国《基督教科学箴言报》预测称,2017年,中美“可能出现大对抗”,除了“最坏的情况可能是在南海发生军事冲突”外,美中可能陷入贸易战,中国将通过取消波音订单,改购欧洲替代产品等,来报复特朗普对中国产品征收高关税。
“战略预测”公司预测2017年的中国将会“很忙”。为提升经济活力,“中国将把原来进口的多种产品改为自制”,这将使全球经济受连带影响,“美国将为特朗普质疑一个中国政策的做法埋单。”“中共十九大会将经济稳定优先于改革重组,加大国家主导投资。”文章还预测中国不仅会扩大自己在亚太地区的影响力,还会在能源、军事和网络技术方面寻求与俄密切合作。
沙特阿拉伯卫星电视台称,2017年,美国将更“保守”,其工业将采取“贸易保护主义”。如此,扛起全球化大旗的责任或将落到中国的肩上,以保障开放市场的连续性。
在南海问题上,“战略预测”公司认为2017年中国会采取“更慎重稳健的策略”,放弃激进扩张策略,留出“一部分合作空间”。
“虽然美国新总统特朗普常常批判中国,但提及南海的言论不多,今后美国和中国的距离感并不明确。”日本三井物产战略研究所刚刚出炉的报告认为,在外交方面,2016年对中国来说“是实际感受自身影响力增大的一年”,2017年中国外交的最优先课题是构筑和特朗普的关系,而南海对中国的战略重要性不会改变,中国将凭借经济援助等方式,拉近东盟各国,“把该海域切实变成自己的内海”。
三井物产还预测,2017年中国会坚持对韩国的“北风”外交,在两岸关系上也会冷风频吹。明年是日中邦交正常化45周年,但日中关系并不乐观,虽然首脑会谈次数在增加,但急速拉近距离的可能性很低,中日将“继续进行神经战”。
责任编辑:马少騄 CN061
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