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日本21个月来首次调高经济评估 商业投资未回暖

2016-12-22 04:26:02   

原标题:日本21个月来首次调高经济评估

日本政府21日调高了月度经济评估,为2015年3月以来首次,但商业投资领域仍未回暖,显示日本多项经济政策在通缩面前效果有限,大规模刺激政策退出动作尚未进入视野。

日本内阁府21日发布12月份月度经济报告,维持对本国经济温和复苏的基本评估。但报告同时表示,公共投资及住房建设两项经济指标的表现比11月份报告的预测更差。

报告对于就业形势的评估好于11月份发布的报告,认为就业形势正在改善,“近期数据可明确看到增长迹象”。数据显示,日本失业率在10月份降至3.1%,创20年新低,部分非制造业企业雇工意愿增强。

内阁府认为,个人消费正稳步增长,未来有望随着就业和薪资的增加而增加。内阁府认为,企业盈利正在改善,但对未来经营状况的信心仍可能出现波动。

内阁府报告对日本经济前景持乐观看法,认为整体经济有望持续复苏。不过报告警告称,仍有部分领域增长乏力。其中,公共投资持续减少,比11月报告的预测更悲观。预计随着政府努力恢复财政健康,未来投资下行趋势将更加明显。“住房建设零增长”的表述,也比上个月报告“逐步增长”的看法更悲观。

对于日本经济向好的趋势,日本央行20日也给予相似的判断。由于亚洲新兴国家需求及制造业产出回升,日本央行调高对经济的评估。

“日本经济延续温和复苏的趋势。”日本央行在政策决议声明中称,出口及产出正在回升,对其看法更加乐观。

同时,日本央行继续承诺将引导短期利率保持在-0.10%,以及10年期国债收益率维持在“0”附近。

近期日元走软对日本影响正面,拉动了出口的复苏,日经225指数也随之创出了11个月来的新高。在日本央行12月企业短期经济观测调查中,大型制造企业景气判断指数近6个季度来首次走高,拉低物价的原油价格也呈上升迹象。

路透社文章称,尽管近期日元贬值令出口反弹的预期升温,但日本央行官员并非高枕无忧,美元涨势中断等因素可能令向好的市场状况逆转。在日本央行9月调整政策框架,使其更适合于长期抗击通缩后,市场对货币进一步宽松的预期已经消退。

近期,日本10年期国债收益率持续上涨,日元持续走软。日本央行是否会调整货币政策甚至退出大规模货币宽松政策成为市场关注的焦点。

日本央行行长黑田东彦对此表示,目前仍然距离达成2%的通胀目标很远,所以延续货币宽松是合适的。他还表示,10年期国债收益率维持在0%左右是一个政策引导,而非限制。

“央行并没有预设国债收益率不能低于或高于某个水平的想法。目前探讨货币宽松退出方案并不合适,这将引起市场的困惑。我们将在合适的时机展开讨论。”黑田东彦说。

除了货币政策,日本共同社文章称,日本首相安倍晋三推出的一揽子刺激方案仍未能令该国摆脱通缩困扰,在商业投资领域增长几乎停滞。“增长停滞的消费和企业支出已成为日本政府的头号难题”。

另外,黑田东彦还表示,无法对美国特朗普新政府的政策发表评论,上调日本经济评估与特朗普当选美国总统后的市场反应并无特定关联。美国大选过后,美元不断走强。在近日美联储鹰派表态后,美元指数更是创出了14年来新高。日元由此持续走软,自美国大选以来,该货币兑美元已下跌超12%。

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