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看好中国经济前景五大理由:楼市降温 债务风险可控

2017-10-20 07:17:55   

中新社北京10月19日电 (记者 王恩博)中国经济是否保持稳健增长?官方19日公布的三季度经济数据给出了肯定答案。在接受中新社记者采访的多位经济专家眼中,看好中国经济未来前景的理由还有不少。

资料图:一处刚建设完工的房地产楼盘。 中新社记者 张斌 摄

经济增长韧性足

根据国家统计局数据显示,今年三季度中国国内生产总值同比增长6.8%,经济连续9个季度运行在6.7%至6.9%区间,保持中高速增长。这一回暖势头能否持续?

国务院发展研究中心产业经济研究部研究室主任魏际刚分析说,从外部看,全球经济已经复苏,中国外贸形势将迎来较好环境;从内部看,农业基本稳定,制造业温和扩张,服务业、高技术产业保持良好增长,结构调整将推动经济增长。

经济的韧性还来源于开放。魏际刚指出,中国将进行新一轮大规模开放,开放将集聚人流、数据流、信息流,在此情况下到2030年中国有望成为全球贸易中心,甚至全球枢纽。

营商环境持续优化

中国开放程度几何,营商环境是一个参照。据统计,中国引进外资已连续25年位居全球发展中国家首位,外资营商环境也不断改善。

中国贸促会研究院国际贸易研究部主任赵萍表示,中国投资环境总体上是不断向好的。政府非常重视优化投资环境,对外资开放程度不断提高,并且在投资环境改善举措方面,也不断有政策落地。

资料图:一在建楼盘 中新社记者 骆云飞 摄

楼市“降温”着眼长远

一年来,中国各地楼市调控政策密集出台,市场渐趋平稳。随着租售并举、加大共有产权房供应等措施逐渐落地,更清晰的长效机制越来越近。

中国房地产业协会原副会长朱中一认为,当前中国房地产市场正在向“住有所居”和平稳健康的方向发展,调控效果逐步显现。随着官方明确房地产市场定位,有关部门在长效机制建设方面将加快动作。

至于具体制度安排,朱中一认为,相关方面应首先完善住房制度,完善多主体共赢、多渠道保障,租购并举的住房供应体系,加快住房租赁市场立法,加快机构化、规模化租赁企业发展。并在此基础上,建立与之配套的土地、金融、税收、法制及市场监管等制度。

债务风险依然可控

防风险是当前中国经济工作的重点之一。风险不仅来自金融领域,也来自地方、企业债务等领域。

国家发改委国际合作中心首席经济学家万喆指出,中国总体杠杆率虽然在合理范围内,但仍有国有企业杠杆率相对高等结构性问题,对此,中国在较早便提出多项政策和举措,进行去杠杆、清理地方债务平台、优化政府财政预算方式方法等。

她表示,在国内债务结构下,国有企业虽然杠杆率较高,但正因为相关特色,目前中国在这方面还不会有类似债权人和债务人之间丧失信任,而形成的强制与无力清偿间的矛盾危机。而且其中蕴含的信用危机、效率危机等已经受到了深切关注,并在防范系统性金融风险、加强金融监管的推进下逐渐得到纠正。

民间投资活力复苏

民间投资乏力,一度困扰中国经济。去年,民间投资一度大幅下跌。各方面出台多项刺激政策,提升民间投资者信心。

“从现在的经济发展态势来看,(刺激政策)已经有一些成效。”华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家贾康表示,当前中国经济增速整体提升、多项指标向好,支撑这一局面的,不仅是大企业,也包括许多中小微企业。

汇丰银行(中国)有限公司副行长兼工商金融总监方啸亦指出,据该机构调查,多数中国中型企业看好未来业务前景,并致力于开拓国内市场。在宏观经济环境稳步向好的环境下,依靠在技术上的持续投入和生产效率不断提升,这些企业将随市场机遇扩展而更加壮大。(完)

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