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海关总署:今年外贸进出口有望实现两位数增长

2017-10-14 09:27:53   

海关总署13日公布的数据显示,前三季度,我国货物贸易进出口总值20.29万亿元,同比增长16.6%。其中,出口11.16万亿元,同比增长12.4%;进口9.13万亿元,同比增长22.3%;贸易顺差2.03万亿元。业内人士认为,10月出口仍将保持强势,进口增速将出现一定程度回调,进出口规模上升势头仍会延续,预计今年全年外贸进出口有望实现两位数增长。

10月出口或延续增长

9月出口增长8.1%,环比上升2.5个百分点。交通银行首席经济学家连平指出,外需向好带动出口增长。三季度以来,美国主要经济指标表现较好,欧洲经济正在复苏,巴西和俄罗斯等新兴国家也摆脱了经济萧条。对美国和欧洲的出口增速重回两位数,对新兴经济体保持较快增长势头。

“出口贸易结构逐渐改善,也是影响9月出口增速的另一个原因。具体来看,9月一般贸易出口增速显著高于加工贸易。出口产品虽仍以机电产品和劳动密集型产品为主,但高新技术产品出口增长较快,且出口增长向中西部地区转移。”连平表示。

九州证券全球首席经济学家邓海清指出,9月出口的回升幅度要明显小于进口,反映出人民币升值的不利影响正逐渐显现,从而大幅拉低了外贸因素对经济的贡献程度。目前来看,由于房地产投资“断崖式”下滑可能性不大,出口同比增速仍处于历史较高水平。且三季度以来,美日欧经济再度强势走好,中国经济也不存在“二次探底”的可能性。

东方金诚分析师预计10月出口或将延续增长。近期波罗的海干散货运价指数持续上涨,全球贸易明显回暖,将继续对我国出口形成有力支撑。加之上年同期仍存在一定程度低基数效应,10月出口或将保持当前较快增长势头。

10月进口增速料回落

9月进口增长18.7%,较8月上升5.2个百分点。东方金诚分析师称,企业生产前置、大宗商品价格上涨拉动9月进口大幅增长。9月我国制造业PMI新订单指数环比大幅上升,显示国内需求旺盛。加之即将进入采暖季,部分企业提前安排生产,带动进口需求提前释放。同时,9月我国铁矿石及煤炭等大宗商品进口量均现明显增长。

东方金诚分析师预计,10月进口增速料回落。10月以来,除原油外,各类大宗商品价格普遍呈下行之势。此外,国内房地产调控政策向投资端传导,也将在一定程度上抑制进口需求。不过,进口增速仍将保持两位数。

海关总署新闻发言人黄颂平指出,总的来看,今年前三季度,我国进出口回稳向好势头在巩固,增长质量效益在提升。四季度,在不发生大的风险事件的情况下,经过持续努力,进出口总值将继续增加,今年全年外贸进出口有望实现两位数的增长。

连平认为,由于国际市场仍存在不稳定、不确定性因素,近期出口先导指数有所走弱,人民币汇率升值,可能对明年出口构成影响。

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