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全国首套房平均利率年内第九次上涨 专家称将达峰值

2017-10-13 07:22:53   

融360最新数据显示,9月,全国首套平均房贷利率升至5.22%,年内第9次上涨。但值得注意的是,与此前几个月不同,房贷利率涨幅呈放缓趋势。

数据显示,从全国首套房贷款平均利率走势来看,9月全国首套房平均利率为5.22%,相当于基准利率的1.06倍,环比8月上升了2.01%,上涨速度呈放缓趋势;同比去年9月的4.44%,上升了17.66%。全国首套房平均利率最低的城市前十名分别为上海4.89%、厦门4.99%、大连5.03%、东莞5.06%、西安5.08%、昆明5.10%、乌鲁木齐5.11%、沈阳5.13%、成都5.15%、太原5.15%。

具体来看,在全国35个城市533家银行中,有137家银行首套房利率上升,占比25.70%;房贷利率下降的有13家银行,占比2.44%;与上月持平的有367家银行,占比68.86%。此外,有36家银行分(支)行因额度等原因暂停受理房贷业务。

二套房贷方面,9月二套房平均利率5.60%,较上月保持平稳上升,去年同期为5.39%。533家银行中,除36家停贷的银行分(支)行外,二套房贷执行基准利率的银行有2家;278家银行执行基准利率上浮10%,较上月减少62家;执行基准利率上浮15%的有44家;上浮20%的有149家,较上月增加33家;16家银行执行基准利率上浮30%,较上月新增5家。

融360分析师李万赋表示,自从2014年降息以来,银行一直进行资产重新定价的工作。期间,受到资产荒和坏账风险暴露的影响,也进行资产结构的调整,结合房地产去库存,住房贷款成为大量银行优先配置的资产,提供了较多利率折扣,房贷供给显著扩大。但随着流动性收缩、银行负债成本上升,资产收益下行,导致银行的收入及利润承压。在这样的情况下,再加上信贷额度的限制,逐步减弱房贷折扣、提高房贷利率就成为银行的必然选择。

但值得注意的是,融360分析师李唯一表示,9月平均利率涨幅已有降低,一线城市中,除上海有提供优惠利率的银行外,北京、广州、深圳平均利率破5.15%,已无优惠利率。一线城市利率变化速度快,时效性强,经历前几次的调整变化后,9月未出现大面积变动。

因此,李唯一认为,就目前来看,一二线城市已大体完成利率上浮的调整,出现再次大幅变动的可能性较小,总体会处于微调状态,峰值或将临近。

此外,因银行额度受限,房贷放款时间或再度延长。融360监测数据显示,超过90%以上的银行表示,目前均面临额度不充裕的问题,放款时间由以往的15至60天延长到60至180天不等,部分银行房贷业务受额度影响已进入排队等候办理状态,少数银行分支行暂停新增房贷业务受理。

在放款时间方面,以北京为例,23家开展房贷业务的银行中,仅大华银行、民生银行15日放款,兴业、渣打、农行、建行、中信等执行30日放款,中行、汇丰银行、华夏银行、渤海银行等则延至60日。上海的24家银行中,已没有银行15日放款,兴业、农行等13家银行执行30日放款,工行、浦发等45日放款,招行、交行、光大等则60日放款。

李唯一表示,进入四季度后额度问题将会更加明显,银行严格控制房贷增量,预期明年额度问题不会得到大幅度缓解。真正有效缓解额度问题的关键还在于保障居住需求,市场通过扩大供给保障类房、租房等,分批解决住房问题,避免短时间内购房需求过度集中。

最后,李唯一指出,政策调控使得房屋回归居住属性后,投资用途的交易会大幅度降低;银行对于购房贷款审核以及额度把控将会更加严格,其他途径的贷款使用范围也将受到监管,总体流入房贷市场的资金会受到限制。因此,无论是购房市场还是中介市场,都将迎来一定的变革。

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