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山西太原大同鸡蛋价格快速上涨受五大因素影响

2017-09-27 13:12:53   

央广网太原9月27日消息(记者李楠)记者从山西省国调信息了解到,今年以来,太原、大同鸡蛋价格如同“过山车”一样 起伏较大,跌势涨势都为近年来少有,特别是近期蛋价出现快速上涨。8月中旬,太原、大同鸡蛋价格分别为9.28元/公斤、9.14元/公斤,与6月上旬4.96元/公斤、5.26元/公斤的价格相比,分别上涨了87.1%、73.8%。

据调查,年初太原市鸡蛋价格为7.30元/公斤,2月底、3月初曾便宜到4.90元/公斤, 6月份以后鸡蛋价格快速上涨, 6月均价为6.04元/公斤,7月均价6.29元/公斤,到8月20日鸡蛋均价为9.50元/公斤,比5月份的5.31元/公斤上涨了1.79倍。大同市鸡蛋价格年初为7.02元/公斤,2月底、3月初跌落到5.46元/公斤,5月下旬跌到5.18元/公斤,6月中旬开始反弹,价格为5.9元/公斤,6月下旬涨至7.52元/公斤,7月均价6.75元/公斤,到8月20日鸡蛋均价为9.14元/公斤,涨幅之快之猛较为少见。

针对太原、大同鸡蛋价格出现快速上涨势头的情况,国家统计局山西调查总队对太原、大同两地进行了专题调查,鸡蛋价格“大落大起”的原因主要有以下几方面:

一是从疫情环节看,需求量减弱,导致存栏量下降。据调查,由于2017年5月份大同市出现禽流感疫情,导致鸡蛋需求量急速下降,鸡蛋价格开始出现下跌。5月下旬,大同市鸡蛋零售价格跌至今年以来最低点5.18元/公斤。蛋鸡存栏量的大幅下降,导致鸡蛋供应量也急剧减少,从而为疫情影响减弱后蛋价的反弹预留了回升的价格空间。受疫情连带效应影响,太原鸡蛋需求减弱,价格下滑,5月上、中、下旬价格分别为5.52元/公斤、5.30元/公斤、5.11元/公斤。二是从养殖环节看,蛋鸡养殖周期缩短,蛋产量减少,价格回升。今年上半年鸡蛋价格相对较低,据一些养殖企业介绍,由于上半年蛋价低迷,蛋禽养殖户亏损严重,为此企业会缩短成年鸡的养殖周期,成年蛋鸡被提前淘汰,蛋鸡的产蛋期由一年缩短为250天左右。应季的产蛋量减少,产蛋周期的缩短,使鸡蛋生产量整体减少,进而使鸡蛋的养殖成本加大,供应量的减少,鸡蛋商户“惜售”,致使蛋价迅速回升。三是从成本环节看,饲料价格的上涨,加大了禽类企业的生产成本,在一定程度上助推了鸡蛋市场价格。据调查,月份玉米进货价为1.79元/公斤,相比6月份上涨7.2%;豆粕价格也有一定程度的上扬。四是从气候因素看,蛋鸡产蛋率出现季节性回落。6月份以后,随着气温逐渐上升,雨水增多,蛋鸡陆续进入歇伏期,受高温潮湿影响,产蛋率出现季节性回落。据调查,受歇伏期影响,蛋鸡产蛋率下降约2-3%。另外,天气炎热也使鸡蛋的运输和储存难度加大,容易出现质量问题, 从而对市场供应量造成一定的影响。五是从流通环节看,互联网对鸡蛋市场的供求影响作用明显。前期蛋价低迷为涨价预留了空间、高温酷暑和强降雨影响了鸡蛋产量和运输、养鸡场对低价抵制和蛋商惜售,这三方面因素并不能完全解释此轮鸡蛋价格上涨如此之快和如此之猛的原因,因为以前也有同样的情况,价格也会出现上涨,但上涨是台阶式的渐进过程,从来没有出现过今年“井喷式”涨价现象。互联网时代,许多鸡蛋生产厂家、经销商、农产品批发市场的鸡蛋商户,常常是按照鸡蛋期货报价来制定鸡蛋销售价格的,存在人为操控因素,换言之,鸡蛋期货价格上涨已成为本轮蛋价上涨的重要推手。往往是某个地区鸡蛋价格出现上涨时,继而引发本地鸡蛋外流,使得本地鸡蛋更加紧缺,从而推升价格上涨。

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