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侠客岛:飞越日本的朝鲜导弹 日本为啥不拦截?

2017-08-31 02:40:35   中国青年网

要说世界政治局势的“月经贴”,朝鲜半岛问题恐怕首当其冲了。

去年八月美韩军演时,朝鲜用潜艇发射弹道导弹作为回应。一个月后又进行了一次核试验。那是朝鲜的第五次核试验。上周,美国与韩国开始了今年的联合军事演习。朝鲜警告称,军演“火上浇油”,会加剧朝鲜半岛紧张局势。

昨天凌晨,朝鲜果然表示了回应,从平壤发射了一枚中远程弹道导弹。导弹飞越日本北海道大道半岛上空,飞行14分钟后,落入北海道襟裳岬以东1180公里的太平洋海域。

拦截

有人会问,导弹发射威胁了日本的安全吗?日本不是有导弹拦截系统吗,为什么不拦截?其实日本不仅没有必要拦截,而且也不想拦截。

这次导弹发射并没有威胁日本安全。弹道导弹的发射高度一般在几百到上千公里,而根据国际法,另一国航天器在100公里以上的高度飞行,就不算侵犯他国领空。这一次,朝鲜弹道导弹的射程是2700多公里,弹道高度顶点是500多公里,弹道轨迹在日本上空的高度肯定高于100公里了,并没有威胁到日本的安全,按照国际法,日本也没有理由拦截。

从技术层面上说,日本也不一定能拦截。日本目前的导弹体系是两个平台,一是海基宙斯盾系统,具备中断拦截能力;二是路基爱国者3系统,具有末端拦截能力,射高只有50公里,针对的是即将降落在日本的导弹。这一次如果启动拦截系统,肯定会是宙斯盾。但宙斯盾也有技术障碍:要成功拦截必须提前了解弹道轨迹,并将驱逐舰派遣至相关海域,甚至需要和周边国家沟通领海权,不仅非常麻烦,而且对情报信息的准确性提出很高要求,几乎不可能做到。因此日本成功拦截导弹的可能性是很低的。

从外交上来看,启动导弹拦截系统,无论成功与否,都极有可能触动朝鲜敏感的神经,甚至把这次行动视为准战争,强化了敌意,对日本也没有好处。聪明的日本人当然不会选择去拦截这样一个烫手山芋。

炒作

据日本媒体报道,这一次日本政府通过瞬时警报系统警告导弹通过轨迹之下的居民,要利用一切可能条件进行躲避。但既然导弹飞越上空,并没有安全威胁,也没有必要启动拦截,日本为何要如此紧张呢?

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