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侠客岛:印度的实力到底怎么样?

2017-07-09 03:52:50   侠客岛

7月6日的侠客岛沙龙,我们请到了曾在印度工作生活、复旦大学国际问题研究院的青年学者林民旺,与我们分享了他眼中的印度。本次沙龙自边界问题起,谈的话题非常广泛,涉及历史和现实,也包含了印度目前的经济军事实力、国家战略、社会情况等。对于想通过新闻获取更多知识的岛友来说,本次沙龙的信息量还是非常丰富的。

因此,我们整理刊发出本次沙龙的文字实录。也因为信息量大,所以没怎么删,有点儿长。但看完相信会有所得。

边界

作为本次沙龙的开端,我们可以先聊聊边界问题。

边界问题是中印关系的核心问题之一。中印在2008年之后,经济发展的差距就迅速拉开。原来印度GDP大概是中国的二点五分之一至三分之一,现在印度GDP是中国的五分之一,相信很快中国就是印度的六倍多了。所以,对解决边界问题,印度显得稍微焦虑一些,也急迫一些。

为什么印度会选择这个时机在锡金段上同中国对峙呢?从印度的角度看,大概有如下几点。

第一,从去年到现在,中印关系走势不太好,现在算是集中爆发。去年印度要加入核供应国集团,当时有六个国家反对;印度认为它没能顺利进入,是以中国为首反对所致。另外,印度想把虔诚军头目列到

联合国

的恐怖分子名单中,它认为也是中国挡住了它。去年一整年,中印关系经历波折,所以今年印度以边境对峙作为反制措施,4月份达赖访问达旺也是其中的一部分。

同样,印度有测试中国的意味。因为莫迪访问美国,跟特朗普见面,两国战略伙伴关系重启;接下来的七月份,印、美、日将在马拉巴尔举行军事演习,可以说这是1992年以来规模最大的一次演习;再加上这次对峙的时机,看上去就像是印度在测试中国的战略耐性。

中印边界争端最终会怎么解决呢,没有人知道。但是我想印度至少是有后悔过的。未来的解决,我觉得很重要的一点就是需要政治领导人的决心和决断。现在的问题是印度民粹主义的情绪上升,所以领导人都不敢轻易地尝试去解决这个问题。中印边界问题要解决,核心的问题就是达旺的归属问题,原国务委员戴秉国今年年初接受采访的文章中已经说得很清楚了。

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