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媒体评美国大学生死亡:警惕美借机促华对朝施压

2017-06-21 09:24:01   环球时报

原标题:社评:大学生死亡,美对朝政策面临考验

被朝鲜释放的美国大学生瓦姆比尔于美国时间星期一死亡,他在上周获释以来一直处于昏迷状态,美国媒体的报道说,他成为植物人已有很长时间。瓦姆比尔2016年1月在朝鲜旅游时被捕,后以“阴谋颠覆国家罪”被判处劳教15年。据外媒报道,瓦姆比尔本人曾在朝鲜电视台承认自己试图盗取酒店内的一幅宣传标语。

据西方媒体援引平壤方面通报的消息,瓦姆比尔的病因是食物中毒加上吃了安眠药。不过瓦姆比尔的父母和美国舆论认定这名大学生受到“虐待”。目前美方尚未给出瓦姆比尔死因的医学结论,但是美方的整体情绪显得比较激动。

美国媒体和分析界大多认为,这件事将会对华盛顿的对朝态度造成很大冲击,一方面舆论的情绪会压缩特朗普政府运作朝鲜问题的空间,迫使其对平壤变得更加强硬。另一方面,特朗普政府本身也可能失去“劝”平壤的耐心,从此更多依赖对朝鲜政权的极限施压。

美朝在华盛顿宣布“四不”之后开始了官方接触,但双方的态度太悬殊,谈得有些无精打采,迄今毫无突破僵局的迹象。瓦姆比尔的死相当于新的一桶冷水浇过去,双方的官方接触能否至少作为缓和彼此关系的一个标志持续下去,成了悬念。

北京尤其要警惕的是,美国舆论纷纷放风,认为瓦姆比尔之死会促使华盛顿向北京施加更大压力,促中国在朝核问题上“切实起作用”。由于中美外交安全对话华盛顿时间星期三就要举行,不排除美方会把此事转化成其在朝核问题上对华展示强硬姿态的一张道义牌,迫使中国做出更多承诺。

年轻的生命陨落令人唏嘘,但如果大的政策也变得很感性,这或许容易赢得舆论支持,但感性通常会伴随直接或潜在的代价。华盛顿转为一味强硬对朝施压很容易,过去的美国政府没少那样干,奥巴马时期因此而遇到的所有问题特朗普政府都将重新经历一遍。

朝核问题的牵动面很广,也很复杂,想快刀斩乱麻地打开局面,甚至寄希望于中国把美国该做的事情都给办了,是不现实的。如果美国的体制只能做简单的事情,操作不了复杂的事,那么朝鲜半岛局势最终被重新引爆就将是很高概率的事情,那将是悲哀。

为帮助突破朝核问题僵局,中国已经尽力了,但中国永远不会在对朝施压方面扮演“美国的盟国”。中国社会也不会答应政府那样做,如果华盛顿考虑将中国的部分企业作为第三方予以制裁,必将导致中美围绕半岛问题的严重龃龉。除非华盛顿只想“泄愤”,它决不会因为采取第三方制裁措施而得分。

当中美已就朝核问题有了不少共识的时候,双方共同促成了一个虽然有点复杂、但确实能带来推动力的解决问题方案。这比美方总是寄希望于调整政策能带来根本性改变要现实得多。调整有时会是拒绝做艰苦努力、而用表面“焕然一新”糊弄公众的表现。

希望即将开始的中美外交安全对话既不是空谈,也不是吵架会,在它结束的时候中美围绕朝核问题的共识应当比开之前多,解决问题的思路变得更清晰和可行,那它在朝核问题上就算成功了。亚太地区如今根本承受不了中美就重大问题闹崩,别看华盛顿潇洒,它其实也很难承受。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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