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美国《国家利益》双月刊网站5月11日刊发美国海军军事学院中国海事研究所副教授莱尔·J·戈尔茨坦的文章《俄罗斯如何能帮助解决朝鲜危机?》称,2016年,就如何确定在朝鲜问题上与中国合作和在南海问题上与中国对抗的优先性,白宫与五角大楼爆发了激烈的争论。现在,特朗普政府似乎平息了(至少暂时平息了)这场争论——确定合作的优先性,以促使北京帮助遏制平壤的核野心。特朗普不仅表示,如果中国在朝鲜问题上果断采取行动,则将在中美贸易谈判中得到回报。还在近日透露,华盛顿似乎选择了在南海问题上减少对中国的施压。
文章称,事实上,战略优先性上的这种明显转变早就应该出现了。正如之前多次讨论过的,对美国国家安全以及美国的盟友而言,朝鲜半岛局势远比有关南海“暗礁、岩石和低潮高地”的争论更危险。但美国现有政策仍存在一个逻辑问题:即推断中国当然有能力也有意愿独立遏制朝鲜的核野心。3月中旬,中国媒体评论称,“华盛顿……明明知道北京‘控制’不了平壤。朝鲜是完全独立自主的国家。”这并不是说北京的作用不重要。北京当然比其他相关方拥有更大的实力和影响力。但要使朝鲜半岛在当前的风暴中“安全着陆”,中国仍将需要其他东北亚国家的积极支持。在暂停升级、冻结、裁军的道路上,日本、韩国和美国都将在中国的领导下发挥重要作用。但在对当前朝鲜危机的分析中,俄罗斯的地位和潜力也许是最被忽略的。
莫斯科对解决朝鲜半岛危机的作用一直被西方媒体嘲讽为漫不经心、无效,甚至有害。而中国的解读显然更希望提高俄罗斯对朝鲜问题的关注,这是2014年乌克兰危机后的一个明显趋势。2014年底,中国一篇杂志评论写到:“中国希望看到朝鲜打破外交孤立状态,所以如果俄罗斯与朝鲜改善经济关系,则将减轻中国的长期负担。”2017年3月底,中国媒体盛赞说,俄罗斯太平洋舰队突然驶入日本海是对美国和日本对朝鲜半岛及周边战略施压的回应。
与此同时,俄罗斯国防高官也暗示,将加强与中国在评估朝鲜半岛局势上的合作。几周前,俄罗斯《消息报》的一则头版标题为《总参谋部称,美国导弹防御系统对俄罗斯和中国的核力量构成威胁》。俄罗斯报纸也没有放过解读美国打击叙利亚双重含义的机会,该报刊登的头版标题包括《叙利亚遭到打击,接下来朝鲜会遭到打击吗?》
责任编辑:孙鑫鑫 CN066
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