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默克尔与普京会晤 警告俄罗斯勿干涉德国大选

2017-05-04 04:23:29   新京报

国际纵横

如果俄罗斯对《新明斯克协议》的执行三心二意,那么默克尔将继续维持对俄制裁。这也向俄罗斯释放了一个明确信号:俄罗斯通往欧盟的和解之路必须首先经过德国。

俄罗斯总统普京2日在索契会见了来访的德国总理默克尔。这是默克尔过去两年来首次访问俄罗斯。两人就乌克兰危机、叙利亚冲突和7月份即将在德国汉堡举行的G20峰会等议题进行了会谈。

德国大选在即,默克尔在这个时候去会见普京,意图是什么?

笔者认为,默克尔想通过这次会谈提升她在国内和国际舞台的威望。

在国内层面,德国大选在即,默克尔需要尽可能地增加政治资本,竭尽全力实现其第四次连任德国总理的目标。尽管从目前的政治氛围来看,默克尔胜算不小。然而,默克尔需要严肃对待国内日益膨胀的民粹主义思潮,再加上各种似真似假的传闻暗示俄罗斯会干涉德国大选,默克尔面临的国内政治压力不可小觑。

为此,默克尔必须采取必要措施防止和遏制他国发动舆论战和信息战。在发布会上,默克尔对他国可能干涉德国大选的表态非常坚决,显然是在告诫俄罗斯。

此外,尽管默克尔坚持对俄制裁可能让国内部分工商团体不满,毕竟启动制裁之后,德国和俄罗斯的双边贸易从2014年的700亿美元降至2016年的407亿美元。然而,默克尔同样不顾波兰和乌克兰的反对,积极推进与俄罗斯共建“北溪2号”天然气管道,以保证能源的稳定供应,促进德国经济增长。默克尔希望通过平衡德国的地缘政治和地缘经济利益,寻求工商界的支持,巩固执政基础。

在国际层面,默克尔与普京的会谈有利于巩固她在欧盟的领导地位。与2015年的双边会谈相比,此次会谈的重要背景是欧盟所面临的形势越来越严峻。随着英国脱欧、特朗普对欧政策摇摆不定、难民危机愈演愈烈、民粹主义席卷欧洲等,欧盟的稳定和团结面临严峻挑战。在这个背景下,默克尔需寻找突破口来塑造她在欧盟的核心地位,以期引领欧盟渡过难关。这也解释了为何乌克兰危机及其化解成为此次会谈的核心议题。

默克尔坚持将《新明斯克协议》(下文称《协议》)的执行与解除对俄制裁挂钩,有两层深意。其一,《协议》的最终签署,默克尔功不可没。但协议执行不力,默克尔塑造的“协调者”形象仍有瑕疵。如果俄罗斯同意推进《协议》的执行,将有助于提升默克尔在欧洲的威望。其二,如果俄罗斯对《协议》的执行三心二意,那么默克尔将继续同盟友保持一致,维持对俄制裁。这也向俄罗斯释放了一个明确信号:俄罗斯通往欧盟的和解之路必须首先经过德国。默克尔在欧洲的影响力不可小觑,在美俄关系尚未解冻之前,俄罗斯显然不会忽视默克尔在欧洲的威望。这也是为何普京同样认同《协议》的重要意义。

总之,在特朗普当局还没有制定出明确的和一致的对欧政策之前,默克尔和普京的会谈具有非常重要的象征意义。默克尔的来访可以看成是她采取积极威望政策的最佳注脚。尽管此次会谈没有给双边关系带来实质性突破,但无论是对内还是对外,默克尔将会继续塑造她作为德国乃至欧盟的领导者角色。

责任编辑:穆启春 CN063
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