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特朗普要亲俄抗中使美国更强大?专家:风险极大

2016-12-29 10:03:01   

原标题:特朗普通过亲俄抗中使美国更强大?美专家:风险极大

【环球时报驻俄罗斯、美国特约记者周州崔晓东环球时报记者白云怡】墨西哥新闻网站“新生”近日评论称,特朗普似乎有意向俄罗斯和普京谄媚,并通过与中国的对抗重建世界秩序,以实现“让美国再次伟大”的竞选口号。对中美俄三方关系,纽约大学全球事务中心教授爱德华·戈德堡则认为,对美国来说,听任在经济和政治上实力更弱的俄罗斯摆布,并试图与中国“分离”,不会带来任何经济或政治好处。恰恰相反,美国如果打这样的牌,个中风险极大。

美俄关系发生变化会对中国产生什么影响?清华大学国际关系研究院院长阎学通近日在接受《环球时报》专访时表示,美俄关系改善可能会使中俄关系进一步提升的机会消失。对于俄罗斯来说,和中国合作的目的在于减少美国对它的战略压力,倘若美国的压力下降,它对中国的需求也就没有那么大了。目前来看,俄罗斯很难会为了和中国合作而放弃美国直接减少对其压力的机会。阎学通说:“我在思考,如果中俄是同盟关系,我们会这么担心特朗普改善美俄关系对中俄关系的影响吗?希望中俄关系不会倒退。”

复旦大学国际问题研究院教授冯玉军28日告诉《环球时报》,在特朗普上台后,美俄关系预计会出现一定程度的好转,“毕竟正如普京所说,美俄关系现在已经坏到不能再坏了”。但俄美关系改善将主要表现在气氛上,实质性合作很难达成。在经济上,两国贸易额只有300多亿美元,对重视贸易的特朗普来说,这个微乎其微的数字很难对美国经济起到什么拉动作用。而在安全领域,双方难以调和的矛盾还有更多,在反导、网络战等领域的竞争已经几乎没有规则和底线。尽管冷战时期的全面军备竞赛已不再可能,但追求不对称的平衡仍然是俄罗斯的原则。冯玉军表示,中俄关系有其自己的逻辑与价值,俄不可能放弃,更不可能和美国一起携手来对付中国,“事实上,美中俄的三角角力关系其实很微弱”。倘若中俄再度走向“冷战”时期的对抗局面,对中俄双方都将是一场巨大的灾难。

俄科学院远东研究所副所长奥斯特洛夫斯基认为:“目前中俄在政治和军事领域的关系达到了前所未有的高水平,两国是重要的战略伙伴。因此,未来俄美关系升温无论如何也不会影响到俄中当前的伙伴关系。他称,普京总统在年度大型记者上强调,中俄两国在国际舞台上保持共同的立场,两国都十分珍惜当前的关系。

针对有舆论认为“特朗普计划利用与俄友好来共同对抗中国”的说法,俄科学院远东研究所专家罗马诺夫表示,俄罗斯不会因与美国改善关系而损失与中国的关系。如果俄罗斯与中国发生边境纠纷,那么俄将是最大的输家。因此,俄罗斯不会与美联手对抗中国,因为这会给俄在政治、经济和军事领域造成重大损失。

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