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周永生称,三步中只有第一步比较容易,因为国会议员中在野党已经超过半数,他们都希望弹劾朴槿惠,但后两个程序都比较难。在野党国会人数不足三分之二,所以,如果要国会通过,需要国会中的执政党议员分裂,加入在野党阵营,这不是不可能,但并不容易。第三步也很难,目前9名大法官大都是在执政党新国家党执政的时候任命的,所以他们的选择很难说。
时永明也认为弹劾很难,宪法法院最长可以审理180天,很有可能弹劾程序还没走完,朴槿惠的法定任期就到了。最多可能是提前启动新总统选举,朴槿惠不会像外界期待的那样马上离开总统职位。
对美日韩同盟没根本影响
“闺蜜门”事件发生后,给美日韩关系带来怎样的影响?接受北青报采访的专家认为,随着特朗普获得美国大选的胜利,美日韩加快了行动的节奏,比如,韩日两国正式签署了《军事情报保护协定》。
周永生表示,美日韩希望加紧推进奥巴马政府制定的美日韩准军事同盟,给特朗普一个既定事实,因为他们担心特朗普上台后生变。但是从目前看,此事能推进的程度有限,离特朗普上台只有不到两个月。即便通过了,有了协定都不能说形成了美日韩军事同盟,只能说向美日韩准军事同盟迈进了一步。
从朴槿惠第一次公开表态至今,到了这个地步,周永生认为,她没有更好的选择,如果配合检察很容易会坐实罪行,她更无计可施。
文/本报记者周宇供图/视觉中国
责任编辑:高宗影 CN060
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