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菲律宾能从中俄买啥武器?外媒:枭龙合其胃口

2016-10-21 08:31:45   参考消息

菲律宾能从中俄买啥武器?外媒:枭龙合其胃口

参考消息网10月21日报道日本外交学者网站10月14日发表题为《菲律宾可以从俄罗斯或中国购买什么防务装备?》的文章,作者为罗伯特·法利,编译如下:

菲律宾可以从俄罗斯或中国买到什么?正如外交学者网站曾经报道的,菲律宾总统杜特尔特已经建议其国防部考虑从俄罗斯和中国采购武器。这些武器料想将会替换美国提供的武器。这将是杜特尔特重新思考菲律宾在东南亚地位的长期承诺的一部分。

杜特尔特想要得到什么?菲律宾对现代军事装备的需求很可观,尽管其手头的财力相当贫乏。在最近几年里,马尼拉把注意力集中在了直升机、轻型飞机、轻型巡逻艇和各类弹药方面。这些装备大多来自美国,尽管日本在支持马尼拉的海洋抱负方面也扮演了角色。不过,俄罗斯或中国有能力满足这些相对不高的要求。中国的“枭龙”战斗机完全符合菲律宾的要求,同样翻新版的米格-29型战斗机也符合要求。(杜特尔特已经对一项购买更新版F-16战斗机的协议提出了批评。)总之,尽管抓住菲律宾军贸市场只能带来微薄的利润,但这正对俄罗斯或中国军工综合体的胃口。

马尼拉和华盛顿紧张的关系可能导致其他问题,涉及技术转让。菲律宾是韩国航天工业公司(KAI)T-50“金鹰”教练机的主要客户之一。不过由于KAI是与洛克希德-马丁公司合作开发该项目的,因此美国对于该飞机的出口拥有事实上的否决权。尽管这么做可能不会影响当前的交付日程,并且此举对于美国来说无论如何也都不会是轻而易举的,但把T-50当作要挟手段将是华盛顿“工具箱”中的一个选择。当然,杜特尔特已经用轻蔑的语言谈论过T-50飞机,因此否决或许不会对他的决策产生很大影响。

对于俄罗斯和中国来说,认真对待杜特尔特有关采购军事装备的承诺也有某种风险。美国国防部与菲军方有着长期的深厚关系,这些关系不会在一夜之间恶化。美国已经通过与马来西亚、印度尼西亚和印度等伙伴国展开一系列的演习获得了接触俄罗斯先进军事装备的途径,但是如果杜特尔特的继任者认为恢复与美国的联盟具有更高价值,那么俄罗斯或中国的军事装备可能会遭到美国方面大量的窥视。

尽管如此,总的说来,把整个采购系统从美国转向俄罗斯或中国将需要耗费极其巨大的时间、金钱和官方努力。我们可以预料菲律宾军方和采购官员很可能尝试降低任何新的采购协议的进展速度,以期等待杜特尔特下台,因为整合俄罗斯、中国和美国的装备会耗费他们业已贫乏的财力。不过,与所有涉及杜特尔特的事情一样,改变军购的前景值得美国以及军火贸易专家们的持续关注。

责任编辑:郭丽颖 cn045
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