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韩部署萨德后中国潜射导弹发射45秒后就可被追踪

2016-02-18 07:10:59   观察者网

萨德”反导系统(资料图)

(原标题:左锦涛:美国在韩部署“萨德”系统,对中国威胁几何?)

在朝鲜宣布“氢弹试验”成功后,韩国国防部于本月12日宣布,韩美将在韩国部署末段高空区域防御系统(TerminalHighAltitudeAreaDefense,THAAD,即“萨德”系统)。这标志着美国推行的亚太反导系统取得了重大进展;如果该系统建成,将严重威胁中国的核报复能力,并且在根本上危及中美两国的战略稳定性。

美国国防部早在2012年就提出,将以美日韩和美澳日两个三边同盟为基础构建亚太反导系统;特别是将在美国的盟国及海外基地,部署更加先进的拦截器和雷达系统。韩国碍于中国的反对,对这个计划一直持暧昧不明的态度。2014年5月至9月,美韩就部署“萨德”系统的问题频繁互动,引起中方密切关注;2014年11月至2015年3月,除了驻韩大使表达中方关切外,中国的国防部和外交部官员也频繁访韩展开外交攻势;至2015年10月,韩国宣布朴槿惠总统访美将不会讨论部署“萨德”系统的问题,这一风波才暂告平息。然而,朝鲜进行第四次核试验使得形势转瞬逆转,韩美借机重启了部署“萨德”系统的谈判,并坚持这一部署是针对朝鲜,将不会威胁到其他国家的安全。

然而从技术角度分析,韩国部署“萨德”系统不仅对于提高对朝防御的作用有限,其“不威胁其他国家”的说辞更是令人难以信服。无论部署的初衷是什么,其对中国国家安全和中美战略稳定性的威胁却是客观存在的、不会因外交辞令而改变的。

“萨德”系统只对朝鲜不对中国?

“萨德”系统是美国研制的新一代弹道导弹拦截系统。弹道导弹的飞行过程成一条抛物线,可以分为上升段、中段和末段;而“萨德”系统即针对弹道导弹的末端飞行进行拦截。一个“萨德”系统作战单位包括了发射系统、拦截弹、指挥系统和雷达。这其中最核心也最具争议性的就是其装备的X波段雷达,FBX-T。

该型雷达具有两种工作模式:第一种是作为“萨德”系统拦截弹的火控引导雷达,仅限于追踪导弹飞行末端的轨迹,主要执行的是战术任务,因而对战略导弹的探测能力有限;第二种则是作为美国导弹防御系统预警的一环,监视敌方发射的战略导弹并向北美总部提供早期数据。学界对于第二种模式的探测距离有着多种估计值,以弹体为目标的探测距离在1200公里至2700公里之间。在这里我们取人民大学吴日强副教授的估计值,假定在1200公里处FBX-T对弹道导弹有完整的探测和识别能力。

结合地图我们不难看出,如果在韩国部署“萨德”系统,那么一旦它的雷达系统转换为第二种工作模式(一些学者认为两种模式的切换只须8个小时),那么不仅仅是朝鲜半岛,整个华北和华东地区乃至渤海、黄海和东海的弹道导弹发射都将处在其监视下。这已经远远超过对朝导弹防御的需要,而开始挤压中国战略导弹部队的机动和作战空间了;这将严重损害中国的核报复能力(我们将在下一节进一步讨论)。

为了打消中国对于以上这一问题的疑虑,美国和韩国的军政官员提出了各种各样的理由,总结来看其论证的基本逻辑是:第一,朝鲜政权始终处于不稳定和缺乏信誉的状态,加之其在常规武器方面处于绝对劣势,因此始终存在“朝鲜对韩美发起有限核打击”的危险,加强东北亚的导弹防御是必要的;第二,“萨德”系统作为新一代的高空末端反导系统对于韩国来说是必要的,其与韩国已有的“爱国者-3”、“绿松”等反导系统可以形成高空、中空、低空的梯次拦截网,从而使得韩国更加安全;第三,基于以上两点,“萨德”系统的雷达将处在的第一种工作模式,也就是说战略导弹的探测能力有限,不会用来削弱中国的核报复能力,因而不会威胁到中国的战略安全。

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