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专家谈美国应看到中国的三个趋势 称两国一荣俱荣

2015-09-21 09:20:43   中新网

作为世界上两个最大的经济体,中美两国的一举一动,特别是二者之间的互动始终牵动着世界的神经。习近平主席即将开启的对美国国事访问自然备受世界关注。20日晚,布鲁金斯学会董事会联合主席约翰·桑顿接受了本报记者采访,畅谈中美关系。

约翰·桑顿从20世纪90年代中期开始关注中美关系,曾在高盛集团供职20多年,后又执教清华大学,一直致力于中美关系问题的研究。他所执掌的布鲁金斯学会成立于1927年,以开展高质量的独立研究,并据此提出具有创新精神和实用性的政策建议为宗旨,被誉为美国最有影响力、最值得借鉴和最受信任的主流智库之一。

约翰·桑顿认为,中美两国“一荣俱荣,一损俱损”。他说,他可以想象到中美两国都发展得特别好,或者两国都发展得特别不好;但他不能想象到一国发展得好,而另一国发展得不好。因此,虽然在有些时候,一方可能会比另一方好,但从长远来看,两国都会变得越来越好。

约翰·桑顿相信,中美关系将随着时间深化,也必须随着时间深化,这是长期的发展趋势。中美两国要想建立深度的彼此信任,需要时间。这意味着在短期内两国关系虽然不太会有大的变化发生,但是“青山遮不住,毕竟东流去”,随着时间的推移,两国关系在文化、教育、经济等层面会越来越深入、丰富、有序。因此,他有充分的理由以及信心来相信两国关系的良好发展,相信只会有好消息。

当谈到两国经贸合作的时候,约翰·桑顿说,非常重要的共识是世界上大多数国家都知道中美两国倾向于与对方合作,以及与其他国家合作,不过有时会被自己的一些政策限制。他认为,有三个趋势是非常根本的、明确的:一是中国坚持改革开放,这一趋势将继续下去;二是中国经济正在发展,并且会以更高的质量发展,这一趋势将继续下去;三是中国经济与世界经济相互依存,而世界经济对中国经济依赖得更深,这一趋势也将继续下去。以亚投行和“一带一路”为例,世界上一些发展中区域亟须进行基础设施建设,中国在过去30年中已经展示出了自己在这方面很擅长,因此建立亚投行和建设“一带一路”很重要,有利于改善许多国家普通老百姓的收入和生活水平,具有很强的实用价值。他认为,此次习近平主席访问美国,可以向美国政界、商界和民众说清楚这三个趋势。

约翰·桑顿认为,中美两国既有合作也有分歧。两国在反恐、全球气候变化、疾病预防等方面的合作不仅对中美两国,对全世界都很重要。在他看来,国与国之间在任何时候都会存在分歧,需要非常小心地处理,特别是涉及国家安全的问题,因为政府的第一责任就是保证国民的安全。世界处于不断变化之中,最大的变化发生在过去30年中,中国在飞速发展,未来还将发展,“这是我们有生之年遇到的头等大事”。这个事实全世界都需要去适应,甚至中国自己也需要去适应。快速的变化需要加强相互了解和信任。一个简单的事实是,美国人民对中国的了解很少,远远少于他们应该知道的,中国也需要更多地了解美国,这都需要时间来解决。约翰·桑顿认为,毫无疑问,习近平主席此次访问美国,将会与奥巴马总统一道,讨论两国面临的分歧,这有利于增进理解,消除误判。

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