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当然这是从军事方面讲,从政治方面看,可能很难有所进展,因为叙利亚局势是非常复杂的,打击恐怖主义的势力军事力量是不可或缺的,但是对于反恐,军事解决只是其中的一个部分,政治解决、外交解决、经济解决、地方治理、改善民生等等,这些必须配套跟进去才能开始解决。美国现在考虑更多的还是军事解决,还没有完全触及到问题的实质。
特朗普贸然行动或再添中东乱局
赵小卓认为,在叙利亚问题以及打击IS恐怖组织等问题上,特朗普目前都还没有拿出系统的政策方案。如果真的大规模增兵叙利亚,就会给整个中东地区的安全形势带来更多混乱和变数。
特朗普的中东政策,打击伊斯兰国和打击恐怖主义的政策,跟奥巴马政府相比有较大变化——更加深度地进入,更加积极地加入,更主动,也准备承担更大风险。
现在有一个问题有待观察,美国体制框架下,出兵是总统下令,但是后续的财政资源或者后续的授权是国会给的,尤其是美国众议院,管美国的钱袋子,如果它不进行财政支援,美国部队派出去之后,维持时间是非常短的。
如果美国向叙利亚派出地面部队,会带来一个很大的问题,就是国际合作可能会更难,尤其是美国跟俄罗斯的合作会更难。它会对美俄之间的战略互信、战场协调、战术方面的配合等,带来一系列的挑战,会刺激叙利亚问题、伊拉克问题发酵,刺激不同派系更多的争斗,使中东问题更复杂,更难以预料。
责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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