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俄军为美国利益而战?俄媒称后者不领情要倒霉

2016-10-26 13:11:15   

图为俄军在叙利亚轰炸目标。

参考消息网10月26日报道俄罗斯《独立报》网站10月19日发表俄科学院世界经济和国际关系研究所首席专家亚历山大·弗罗洛夫的一篇文章,题为《叙利亚考验》,副题为《为何中东冲突对美国的重要性超过乌克兰》,摘要如下:

叙利亚战争早就不再只是地区事件,而是具备了地缘政治对抗的全部特征。实际上,叙利亚10年前还被视为调解阿拉伯-以色列冲突问题上的“二线”国家。如今情况发生了翻天覆地的变化,尤其是在该地区承载了美国的利益之后。要想厘清局势和找到出路,必须解释几个重要的问题。

第一个问题涉及叙利亚国内局势。有人说,叙利亚由阿拉维少数派统治,这不民主,因此不合法,理应改变。目前叙利亚约70%的民众是逊尼派穆斯林,10%是各派基督教徒,10%是阿拉维派,还有少量伊斯玛仪派。从民族构成而言,有库尔德人(9%)、德鲁兹人(3%)、土库曼人(不到3%)和其他人数更少的民族。问题在于,在许多中东国家,维系政权不是欧洲公认的民主原则,而是当局与地方集团和部落之间的非正式协定。这是一种更复杂的关系机制,经常会分崩离析。在此可以用一句英语俗谚来形容:如果一个纽扣扣错了,剩下的也扣不对。黎巴嫩就是一个鲜明例证,随后就是陷入混乱的利比亚。

第二个观点与美国正在制订叙利亚和平调解计划有关。在这方面,美国在叙利亚的政策让很多人觉得没逻辑。实际上,它非常合乎逻辑。难道美国人自己没有对阿拉伯国家的颜色革命结果作总结?他们清楚地意识到:西方模式的民主在该地区水土不服。现阶段美国民主党政府最感兴趣的不是叙利亚和平,不是叙利亚本身,不是俄罗斯,而是赢得总统大选。在两党总统候选人的激烈论战中,胜利的天平摇摆不定。特朗普指责民主党人的政策一个接一个地失利:阿富汗、伊拉克。民主党人遭到了责难,有人说他们在伊朗核计划问题上失败了,如今应当冻结伊朗1500亿美元的庞大海外资产。鉴于此,民主党人已经不能“拱手让出”叙利亚,因为叙利亚的和平意味着俄罗斯的胜利,而俄罗斯的胜利则被视为美国的失败。

第三个论点是美国在叙利亚反对派方面的工作做得不好,未能将温和反对派与极端分子分割开来。那些所谓的温和反对派与阿萨德政府军作战,奉行的世界观各异。暂时很少有人明白这些世界观,包括美国专家乃至情报人员在内。他们自己对此也心知肚明。换言之,美国看到了这些人的表面,但并不了解其内在。他们下一步的行为甚至无法被预测:成为“伊斯兰国”的一个有机组成部分,还是遵循民主思想?后者的可能性很令人怀疑。

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