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美举办东盟会议不敢明提中国 怕别国被吓不去

2016-02-16 09:05:09   

美举办东盟会议不敢明提中国 怕别国被吓不去

当地时间15日至16日,美国首次在本土举行与东盟领导人非正式会议。美国人似乎想把这次会议捧得很高,由于它的具体主办地是加利福尼亚阳光之乡庄园,有媒体甚至提出要形成有关南海的“阳光之乡原则”。这样的造势掺了不少水。

美国对东盟与中国加强合作有一些危机感,想提升它与东盟的关系,这完全可以理解。东盟领导人不远万里一起赶到美国西海岸,也算很给华盛顿捧场。尽管这些领导人中有几位马上面临届满离任,但双方扩大合作的愿望都很真实。

这次会晤将讨论TPP,而且看美国的那股劲,肯定要谈南海。以往东盟峰会在谈不谈南海、怎么谈南海问题上多有纠结,但这次美国人做东,美国人出题,华盛顿将会邀请大家“敞开谈”。

不过华盛顿反复强调这次会议“不针对中国”,大概不是它“不想针对中国”,而是它“不太敢”把中国说成这次会议的针对目标,因为它知道,一旦它做那种安排,很多国家领导人大概根本就不会去了。如果它提前不说,在会上集中向中国发难,它恐怕不会有信心参会的大多数国家领导人能做到与之配合。

在大国之间维持平衡被普遍认为是东盟的核心外交利益,这也成为绝大多数东盟国家的现实外交选择。尽管每个国家未必能把“平衡点”看得很准,但这个原则已经广受认同。连与中国有突出领土争议的越南也很注意在中美之间的平衡问题,东盟十国只有菲律宾公开亲美拉美,但它也不愿与中国完全对立,阿基诺的激进对华政策能否在今年新总统上任后维持下去是个问号。

东盟国家大概都清楚,它们在中美之间搞平衡,两个大国都可唯东盟的利益所用。如果它们倒向中美任何一方,它们就会反过来被那个大国控制,被当成一个大国用来对付另一个大国的“前哨”。

因此我们倒是倾向于相信美国东盟的这次领导人非正式会议真的就是“非正式的”,不会搞出什么地缘政治的惊天动地决定。东盟国家没那个意愿,美国也知其不可为。会议如要开出些成果,还是得围绕加强美国同东盟的正常合作做文章。

TPP被认为也有针对中国的一面,但如果更多东盟国家加入进去,决不会有利于增加它“孤立中国”的功能,而只会让这个问题陷入一个头绪更加混乱的泥塘中。中国长期是东盟第一大贸易伙伴,TPP与中国—东盟自贸区可以兼容,如果要对抗,第一东盟会坚决反对,第二谁压倒谁真说不清。

不能不说美国依然有很强吸引力和号召力,搞一个国际会议常能信手拈来,但美国不是万能的。南海问题毕竟是中国与相关国家之间的事情,东盟的态度是它参与同中国商讨地区和平,具体领土争议由有关国家和中国双边来解决,是为“双轨制”。这一政策是实事求是的,如果美国想把南海纠纷变成中国与东盟之间的问题,东盟不会上当。

不时听到有美国人主张南海“非军事化”,我们觉得这是个好建议,而且美国作为域外国家应首先做到。请它的军舰、飞机休要再来南海搞挑衅活动,那样南海的“非军事化”一定会非常彻底。

美国地理上离得太远,重返亚太私心过于严重,政治经济都只想只赚不赔,这决定了它在南海问题上的号召力虚多实少。请东盟领导人相对容易,但把南海这盆水也搬到加利福尼亚去,美国大概真的搬不动。

责任编辑:汤鹏霏 CM015
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