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加拿大《汉和防务评论》报道,本刊仔细审视了10月10日朝鲜阅兵式的全程图像,从阅兵可以看出,短期内朝鲜不太可能实施类似中国军队那样的改革,它依然会是陆军大国。阅兵观礼台上的数十名将军,只有一名着海军制服,其他全是陆军。最值得重视的当然是远程火箭炮和改良型KN-08“洲际弹道导弹”的亮相。
最新亮相的8联装远程火箭炮,韩国的分析人士基本上认定该火箭炮口径300毫米,最大射程190至220千米。汉和认为这一说法值得进一步分析。该火箭炮口径可能为370毫米。俄、中研制的类似远程火箭炮,并不是随便联装搭配的,而是经过了周密的计算,力图达到火力、射程的结合,提高打击密度。通常,300毫米口径火箭炮,一般都是12联装。
不过,朝鲜的新型火箭炮也可能的确是300毫米口径,类似中国的A200火箭炮,最大射程达到200千米,但是配备相当小型化的弹头,采用中段制导,否则没有实战意义。这意味着朝鲜掌握了在火箭炮飞行中段采用卫星导航。
如果朝鲜采取了卫星制导系统,那么就不能小看KN-15火箭炮的打击精度。汉和在历次中国的防务展览会上注意到,朝鲜代表团对北斗2代卫星定位系统持高度的兴趣,因此不排除KN-15配备中段卫星制导的可能性。
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