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汉和:朝鲜洲际导弹无实战能力

2015-12-10 09:12:22   环球网

资料图:朝鲜KN-08弹道导弹。

加拿大《汉和防务评论》月刊12月号刊发题为《朝鲜:洲际导弹和远程火箭炮》的文章,编译如下:

KN-08洲际弹道导弹仅仅一年,它就换装了空间容量更大的扁平型弹头保护罩,朝鲜是否是想证明自己已经装备了多弹头或是小型核弹头?汉和怀疑这种可能性。因此这次出现的KN-08改良型导弹,其战略欺骗的意义更大。

射程6000千米以上的洲际弹道导弹对弹头保护罩的材料要求相当之高。为了探究如何抗击高温的烧蚀,美国、苏联进行了上千次的模拟、实际发射试验。中国的东风-4远程战略导弹初期测试时,弹头保护罩多次被烧穿。

没有进行过一次实际试射的洲际弹道导弹是不具备实战说服力的。中国一共向朝鲜出售了8台载重量达80吨的导弹载车,使用的是美国的康明斯发动机,朝鲜不可能仿造。那么就算KN-08存在,如何扩大部署数量?无法储存液体燃料的远程弹道导弹如果采用井式部署,就不具备实战意义。

区区七八枚KN-08导弹,最可能采用洞库型部署,要完全隐藏出口是几乎不可能的,美国、日本卫星天天监视,战时如果采用精确打击武器,以战术核武器率先打击其洞口,KN-08没有第2次核反击能力。

那么KN-08以及改良型的出现,是否是100%的战略欺骗?也不一定。朝鲜的确在研制洲际弹道导弹,汉和报道过数年前2名朝鲜间谍在乌克兰被捕的消息,他们试图用3000美元购买SS-18弹道导弹的设计图,并在拍照时被逮捕。因此多次展示的KN-08,有可能反映的是朝鲜设计师的设计方案而已。

对于朝鲜这样存在面子文化的国家而言,“显示决心”的重要性大过“实际能力”。KN-08洲际弹道导弹是否具备实战能力并不重要。真正重要的是,其显示了朝鲜的“决心”与“意志”。至于外部世界如何评价并不重要。

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