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乌克兰僵局难化解 俄罗斯与西方持续交锋

2014-11-20 11:08:35   解放军报

俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫与德国外长施泰因迈尔18日在莫斯科举行会谈,双方表示应在明斯克协议框架内化解乌克兰危机。其背景是,连日来,乌东部地区爆发激烈冲突,紧张局势加剧再次引起国际关注。

分析人士认为,由于各方均无做出重大让步的意愿,乌克兰局势目前已陷入僵局,这种僵局短时间内将难以得到化解。

乌克兰坚壁清野

过去几天,乌东部被民间武装控制的顿涅茨克地区爆发激烈冲突。自乌政府与民间武装9月签署停火协议以来,双方在那里的小规模冲突不断,近来呈现持续升级态势。

乌总统波罗申科17日表示,乌政府“为全面战争做好了准备”。据乌国防部消息,乌政府已签下价值10亿格里夫纳(约合0.7亿美元)的重型装备合同,近期所有这些武器将被运到前线。

此外,乌政府日前决定从民间武装控制的东部地区撤出所有国家机构,同时将切断对该地区的能源、资金等支持。

俄罗斯政治分析人士别列佐维茨认为,乌政府已承认失去对东部地区的控制,因此做出了疏散人员、带走文件、撤出资源的决定。别列佐维茨表示,乌政府将东部地区当做财政负担甩掉,而俄方也不会接手,乌东地区局势已走入死胡同。

俄与西方硬碰硬

另一方面,俄与西方在乌克兰问题上继续交锋。二十国集团峰会期间,美国总统奥巴马称,如果继续违反国际法和旨在结束乌克兰冲突的协定,俄方将继续被国际社会孤立。俄总统普京则表示:“如果仍有人只按照自己的地缘政治利益决定所有问题,那就很难预测动荡还将持续多久。”

俄外交和国防政策委员会主席卢基扬诺夫认为,西方的批评可能迫使普京采取更强硬的立场。

本月16日,普京在接受德国电视台采访时强调,解决乌克兰危机的关键在于放弃武力对抗,促进乌政府与东部民间武装开展平等且持续的政治对话,推动乌克兰实施联邦制等。

俄政治技术中心副主任马卡尔金表示,普京传递了一个明确信号,那就是俄支持和平解决乌克兰问题,但如果乌政府对乌东部地区发动战争,那么俄不会袖手旁观。

对制裁看法不一

为迫使俄改变立场,西方国家将制裁视为向俄施压的“法宝”,但其内部也出现了不同声音。

美国认为,制裁是迫使俄改变对乌克兰危机立场的有效手段。奥巴马在二十国集团峰会期间表示,目前实施的制裁正发挥理想效果,“在必要时将加大对俄的压力”。

欧盟外交和安全政策高级代表莫盖里尼则表示,乌克兰问题光靠制裁无法解决。欧盟需在乌克兰改革方面做工作,同时还要探讨如何处理与俄方的关系。俄国立莫斯科大学经济系教授布克列米舍夫认为,欧洲国家并不希望看到俄经济崩溃。

对于西方制裁,俄仍然保持强硬立场。拉夫罗夫18日说,俄不会乞求西方国家放弃制裁。不过,俄政府金融科学院教授瓦尔亚什认为,尽管俄外汇储备充足,可以抵消部分制裁带来的损失,但目前国际油价大幅下降,这对俄经济将造成巨大影响。(新华社莫斯科11月18日电 记者赵嫣)

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