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美韩乐见中朝相互为敌 欲把朝核问题推向中国

2016-04-25 13:50:39   

据外媒报道,美国总统奥巴马24日表示希望中国就对朝施压与美方“做更高水平的合作”,他指责朝鲜仍在持续进行挑衅性活动。

朝鲜23日发射了一枚“北极星-1”潜射弹道导弹,虽然韩方称导弹飞行距离只有30公里,远低于潜射弹道导弹的最短射程300公里,但是朝鲜方面宣布此次试验“大获成功”。无论如何,朝鲜的这次潜射导弹试验都引起了相当的震动。氢弹、潜射导弹,这些平壤宣布的“成功试验”显示了朝鲜战略攻击能力在一步步推进。

差不多时隔一天之后,朝鲜外务相李洙墉于美国东部时间的23日通过美联社发表谈话,表示如果韩美停止每年在朝鲜半岛进行的联合军事演习,朝鲜愿以停止核试验作为回应。

尽管这不是朝方第一次做这样的表态,韩国方面在第一时间就拒绝了朝方“韩美停军演换朝鲜停核试”的建议,宣称其“荒诞”,但也有很多人认为,朝鲜这样表态毕竟代表了立场松动的一面,总比它说“要从地图上抹去”首尔、同美国打核大战要好得多。

朝鲜显然在用两手对付美韩的压力,但拥核把整个局势带入朝鲜半岛自停战以来前所未有的僵局。美韩的压力与朝鲜拥核到今天已经分不清哪是鸡哪是蛋,但现实是这一恶性循环的节奏和冲击性都在快速加码,真正的危险正一步步迫近。

目前整个局势中严重缺乏阻止事态进一步恶化的抓手和支点,一些发狠的威胁和恐吓在相互刺激下有可能变假成真。如果各方都不想最坏的情况发生,就不应浪费每一个有助于重建稳定的征兆和可能性,也应尽量避免向局势加注新的压力。

平壤试图以小唬大,一直把美韩联盟逼到受不了,迫后者最终做“投降性让步”,大概不切实际。事实是,它的第四次核试验招来了远超之前的严厉制裁和规模空前的美韩联合军演。它如果搞第五次核试验,美韩就会“跪了”,几乎不可思议。

一旦安理会讨论更严厉的对朝制裁,中国很难网开一面,平壤对此应很清楚。

然而换个角度说,美韩推动制裁,挥舞军演大棒,已经把朝鲜搞得“内向”的不得了了。只要它们不真动手,还能有多少张牌呢?

奥巴马又呼吁中国加大对朝鲜施压,从美韩的态度看,如果中朝相互为敌,它们是会愿意的。那样美韩就等于把朝核问题外包给了中国,而这个难题就是美国对朝政策造成的。中国的对朝制裁只会针对朝鲜的核导研发能力,而决不会参与对朝鲜整个国家和政权的窒息,这一点无论美国还是韩国都应十分清楚。

中国人确实担心朝鲜半岛生战生乱,我们眼看着局势的回旋余地正在耗尽,却无能为力,因而甚是遗憾和忧虑。这是负责任大国的健康心态。

然而说一千道一万,万一局势失去控制,中国肯定不会在最倒霉的第一波国家中。如果美韩与朝鲜铁了心就这么折腾下去,没什么好办法的我们第一不能装得有办法,第二也不能主动给任何一方的不负责任之举埋单。中国苦口婆心试图促成转圜,并不是因为我们对局势恶化的承受力比别的方面低。

半岛紧张导致了一些有损中国国家利益的战略动向,比如美韩威胁要部署萨德导弹系统等。但是任何方面都不要低估中国的反制能力和决心。因此各方都不应以极端自私的态度为出发点,而需兼顾其他方面的利益。否则的话,一个劲地发狠,损害其他方面的利益,最终是要付出沉重代价的。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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