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日本已经摆出对华“半敌对”姿态 让我们很不舒服

2016-04-05 11:15:25   

一年一度的美菲“肩并肩”联合军演4日拉开帷幕,日本首次作为观察员受邀,美官员向媒体透露,日本“非常渴望更多地参与”。除此之外,日本的2艘护卫舰和1艘潜艇3日进入了菲律宾苏比克湾,前者还将在越南的金兰湾停靠。日媒分析,日本此举意在向中国施压,并对后者予以牵制。

今年美菲的联合军演中,澳大利亚从观察员升格为正式参演者。澳国80名军人将参加演练。

外部力量对南海问题的介入越来越公开,在姿态上呈“联盟化”之势。尽管这一切的象征意义很大,但它们对南海未来的局势形成了某种战略性预示。

南海过去只是一些领土纠纷和海洋权益摩擦,是域内国家之间的事情。由于中国大的克制,南海摩擦的烈度总体上不高。中国和相关国家签了《南海各方行为宣言》,《南海各方行为准则》也进入磋商阶段,缓和本来很可能成为南海的大趋势。

美国的强势介入,再拉上日本、澳大利亚,正在改变南海问题的性质。南海似乎成了当今大国博弈最突出的水域,牵动整个亚太的军事风险逐渐在这个水域累加。

美国有把南海作为遏制中国崛起关键地区的苗头。它不仅在这里检测自己军事实力威慑中国的效果,还像在尝试构筑对付中国的亚太同盟或者准同盟。关于后一点,南海成就美国这一念头的条件最多。

澳大利亚对军事介入南海犹犹豫豫,它大概有一种压力:南海是检验美澳军事同盟关系质量的试金石。它一半自愿一半受到裹挟,做出与美国站在一起的象征性动作。

日本对南海问题要热心得多,是表面克制内心火热的积极分子。日本政府一来想跟中国斗,更想鼓动其他力量跟中国斗,南海满足了它的诸多愿望。尤其是日本新安保法刚生效,它有了海外军事行动的更大自由度,南海是让这种自由度“落到实处”的最好突破口。今后日本对南海公开或半公开的干预必将越来越多。

中国对日本军舰以停靠菲越港口等方式示威还真没有什么好办法。这些行动展示了东京对我们的敌意,虽没侵犯中国在南海的主权,但冲撞了我们的传统利益线,是在给中国“上眼药”。

如果说南海问题过去还有可能解决的话,今后相当一段时间内恐已很难做此奢望。因为一旦南海朝着“大国角斗场”的方向走,这里将形成另一套问题发生、发展的逻辑,原来的纠纷都会变成承负大国较量的载体。

也许中国与美日之间出现这样一个“角力场”很难完全避免,我们需要接受南海事态的变化,与美日等、尤其是与美国做围绕这种角力的磨合。

只要中美之间无意战略摊牌,南海问题就不至于破裂,美国纠集的“隐性同盟”也很难朝着发挥实质作用强力推进。

日本政府已经摆出对华的半敌对姿态,这会让我们很不舒服。日本有钱和技术,除了在东亚捧反华的人场,还能做出很多增加中国压力的实际动作。但日本对中国的安全威胁是有限的,对此我们不可过于高估。

南海问题、中日关系都越来越失去它们以往的相对独立性,而与中美复杂关系的战略大齿轮咬在了一起。未来几十年将考验中国的战略胸怀、智慧和耐力。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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