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台媒:两岸“冷和平”可能性最大 或将长时间磨合

2016-03-11 13:18:22   萧师言 王海峰 郭媛丹 姜洁

【环球时报综合报道】5·20后,两岸关系何去何从?《联合报》10日称,海基会前董事长洪奇昌认为,两岸可能进入“冷和平期”。洪奇昌9日表示,两岸关系将从过去8年和平发展的机遇期进入“冷和平期”,政治、经贸关系将暂时停顿,寻求可能性的基础,要经过相当长的一段磨合时间。

“中时电子报”则列出两岸可能面临的三种局面。文章称台北论坛基金会日前率团至大陆访问,返台发布新闻稿表示,大陆希望蔡英文正面表述“一中”,大陆对台政策已定,现在“球在台湾那边”。对此,两岸关系评论家预估5·20后可能出现三种不同局面,分别是“维持现状”“冷和平”和“地动山摇”,尤以出现“冷和平”的可能性最大。蔡英文拒绝“九二共识”,会导致两岸出现“冷和平”。届时,两岸协商将中断,交流合作的环境将被限缩。如果民进党更进一步,推动“法理台独”“文化台独”等等,则最坏情况“地动山摇”势难避免。

中国社科院台湾研究所研究员王建民10日对《环球时报》记者表示,岛内学者就“九二共识”向蔡英文喊话,这代表着台湾一部分人的忧虑,其中有警告蔡英文的意思。“我个人认为,蔡英文最终很可能拿出一个有善意的表达,但又模糊、留有余地的表述。”王建民认为,民进党执政后,两岸关系很可能“矛盾、摩擦增多”,“我们要保持更多警惕”。

10日,在台湾团开放日上,全国台联会长汪毅夫在回答台湾领导人更迭后两岸关系的问题时,笑称这个问题回答不好是“坑爹”的。汪毅夫表示,两岸关系会有怎么样的变化,要看新任台湾地区领导人会做什么表态,目前还无法预测。他同时强调,两岸人民的心理距离不会变远。

【环球时报驻台北特约记者 萧师言 环球时报记者 王海峰 郭媛丹 姜洁】

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