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美南海挑衅不会因中国抗议而停

2016-02-01 10:12:44   

美国军方1月30日宣布,其一艘军舰当天闯入了中国西沙中建岛的12海里海域,挑战由于该地区争议为“美国及其他国家航行权益和自由”带来的限制。中国方面立即做出反应,批评美军此举是“非常严重的政治和军事挑衅”,中国军方表示对美舰采取了“警告驱离”措施。

前一段时间的中美摩擦主要针对了南沙岛礁,这是美军近年来首次高调将挑衅范围扩大到西沙岛屿。西沙海域作为非争议区,完全属于中国主权管辖区域,中方已经公布了西沙群岛的领海基线,美军此次明知故犯,因而挑衅的性质的确更为恶劣。

目前中美在南海的斗争态势大体是“你打你的,我打我的”,中国依法扩建岛礁,美“强烈抗议”,却无力阻止。美自称“依国际法”派军舰前来骚扰挑衅,中方也是“强烈抗议”,但缺少有效措施反制。

恐怕很难评估中美在南海相持的战略性质,中美都各有主动和优势,又都有无可奈何之处。中国似乎进退的回旋空间较大,美国对全局的控制力更强。

由于这是在中国家门口发生的事情,南海危机闹大对中国社会冲击也将更大。现在的感觉是美国在围着中国“约束”我们,它对中国的防范是攻击性的,让中国人有“受欺负”的强烈感受。

这种感受将伴随中国很长时间,构建中美的“平等”必将“路漫漫”。虽然中国的策略运用将起一定作用,但这种平等将更多取决于战略实力的构建。

中国的军力与美相比总体上还是低了一截,中美在南海的力量平衡很大程度上在于中国用地理的靠近和数量优势对抗了美国因远距离和不能集中投入而被打了折扣的军事威慑。但是如果美国有决心在南海摊牌,它补充力量的能力很强。

不光在南海方向上,东海也面临类似深层次问题。我们在周边承受着来自美国的巨大压力,中国军力的相对落后是我们对美博弈的最大短板。对这一现实的战略牵动面之广,中国人必须有清醒认识。

美军的挑衅在中国新的两会之前到来,这有一个好处,它再次提醒我们,一定要保持较高的军费增长率,不能因为经济下行压力就放松国防建设,以调低国防预算增长率来缓解财政紧张。

保持中国经济的健康发展,增强国防实力也至关重要。虽然很多关系不是直接的,但中国保持军力的强劲增长对世界评估中国综合国力的规模和质量至关重要,这对增加中国经济竞争力、包括维护人民币的地位等都决非“风马牛不相及”。

大国的国防建设必须占国家全面建设的一定比例,它既不能太高也不能太低。中国的国防预算占GDP不到2%,远低于美国的4%。在达到美国的相同比例之前,中国恐怕需对调低军费增长率持保留态度。

中国尤其需要加快战略打击能力建设,包括第二次核打击力量建设。可以肯定,在中国拥有大体接近美俄级的核威慑力量之前,美国对我们军事上的尊重将会是三心二意的。

美在南海的挑衅和施压不会因为中国的抗议而停止,中国人也应当清楚,短期内我们反制美国的手段将很有限。恐怕至少还要埋头发展军力十几年,甚至更长一段时间,局面才会根本改观。

会有那么一天,美军都不好意思派军舰来中国岛礁周围宣示“航行自由”。南海的航行仍将自由,但它的保障力量将主要来自中国和周边国家,美国的发言权应降到正常的域外国家水平。

中国不能总靠“不惜一切代价”的战略决心吓走美国的挑衅,如果未来美国相信它挑衅中国的代价将高于中国的代价,实现中美相互尊重就轻松多了。▲

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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