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【环球军事报道】据日本商业报道网站27日报道,美国兰德公司高级研究员、中国军事问题和战争推演权威大卫·西拉帕克(音)近日向《外交政策》杂志记者公开他所实施的日中钓鱼岛之战的模拟演练结果称,中国将在5天内打败日本,并且日中在这个“不毛之岛”上的争夺最终有可能引发美中战争,美国最好的策略是“坐视不管”。对此,中国军事专家李杰认为,这种军事推演“别有用心”,就是希望提醒日本,要想控制钓鱼岛,还得不断增加军力,否则美国想帮日本都来不及。
报道称,在过去30多年来,西拉帕克为美军将领和外交官提供了大量细致的军事推演。据他围绕钓鱼岛的推演结果称,中国将在5天内打败日本,令日本束手无策。具体内容为:第一天,日本右翼分子登上钓鱼岛,插上日本国旗并通过网络向中国挑衅,中国政府随即派出海警上岛逮捕所有挑衅者。第二天,日本向周边海域派遣护卫舰和战机,中国也派出军舰,双方处于一触即发状态。在日本的要求下,美国派驱逐舰至日本海,而攻击潜艇驶进钓鱼岛周边海域,但为防止遭到攻击,美国航母从横须贺驶入太平洋。第三天,中国海警船撞沉日本渔船,事态随之升级:日本海上保安厅用高压水枪袭击中国海警船,中国护卫舰与日本空自战机对战。之后,中国用军机和反舰导弹进行攻击,日本2艘舰艇被击沉,500人死亡。根据推演的结果,在日中外交渠道完全闭锁的情况下,日本向美方寻求增援,令美国进退两难。最终,美国决定采取既不至于引发中美战争、又对美军威胁更小的方式,即通过潜艇发射鱼雷攻击中国军舰,结果击沉中国军舰2艘,导致数百名中国海军死亡。第4天,中国高层对事态发展感到震惊,并决定痛击美国。中国启动破坏美国供电系统的软件,导致洛杉矶和旧金山大规模停电。而且,中方还对证券交易所的自动交易系统进行攻击,造成美方数亿美元损失。同时,中国还暗示将秘密抛售美国国债,欲令美元急剧贬值。第5天,中国军队继续通过弹道导弹和巡航导弹攻击钓鱼岛周边的海上自卫队舰艇,24小时内使海上自卫队丧失2成战力。同时,中国开始展开对日经济攻势,使日本脆弱的供电系统瘫痪,并炸毁日本重要的喷气机燃料精炼厂。于是,日本再次向美国“呼救”,要求美军航母战斗群攻击中国军舰和中国本土的反舰导弹基地等。但美方完全拒绝了这一要求,只是增派潜艇掩护海自撤退。到第5天,中国完全控制钓鱼岛。
兰德公司的专家还推演了另一种可能,如果美国应日本要求派航母战斗群进入钓鱼岛周边海域,并对中国本土的反舰导弹基地予以攻击的话,结果会怎样?根据模拟的演练结果:中国的弹道导弹摧毁嘉手纳基地,反舰导弹击沉美军航母,并造成数千人死亡。而美国方面则可以攻击中国海军的重要基地、击沉中国唯一的航母并继续封锁南海令中国经济“窒息”。但美军不会出手帮助海自防卫钓鱼岛。结果是,中国将给予日本无限制的打击。
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