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朝鲜任性韩国怨不得中国

2016-01-15 10:35:52   

韩国舆论近日不断给朴槿惠施压,要求政府促中国管束朝鲜。朴槿惠13日呼吁中国严厉制裁朝鲜,引来更多对中韩关系的议论。面对朝鲜“氢弹”试验,韩国社会有些惊慌可以理解,但他们冲中国发泄自己的焦虑则没有道理。韩国社会需要整理自己的思路和情绪。

比如韩国《朝鲜日报》12日发表社论,题目是《虚构“历代最好韩中关系”究竟应由谁来担责》,里面充满了抱怨。

一些韩国人明知道中朝关系“没那么好”,却又自欺欺人地相信北京“有办法让平壤听话”。朝鲜执意搞第四次核试验,他们认为是中国要求朝弃核的态度不够强烈,似乎中国手里掌握着解决朝核问题的“金钥匙”。

中朝关系当然与韩美日同朝鲜的关系不是一个性质,但中朝不是韩美那样的同盟。不久前朝鲜牡丹峰乐团来中国,没演就回去了,这一来一去是中朝复杂关系的真实写照。要想影响朝鲜在核问题上决策过程和方向,仅靠这样的中朝关系显然远远不够,美韩等必须承担起它们的责任。

应当指出,美韩这几年几乎放弃了它们的有效努力。它们向朝鲜军事施压,炫耀武力,这比做什么都简单。但对于已经拧巴了二十几年的朝核问题,是简单吓唬吓唬就能解决的吗?

朝鲜经常说要“最严厉地惩罚”韩国这个“美帝走狗”,还向延坪岛开过炮,韩国被吓住了吗?韩国自己不害怕,凭什么就相信能用“空前的制裁”以及更极端的军事威胁把朝鲜吓倒?

朝核问题是一个“连环错”的结果,以制裁向朝鲜施压是破解僵局的重要突破口,但必须有更广泛、各方都做出相应妥协和贡献的方案跟进。美韩必须在给朝鲜安全感的问题上有实质动作,但现在的实际情况是,朝鲜和美韩都没有尽各自的义务,它们都被惯性推着在老路上越走越远。

韩国长期“处在美国保护下”,但那既是保护,也同时是“绑架”。美国的朝鲜半岛政策不是为韩国利益设计的,而是华盛顿亚太大战略的一环。很多人相信美国不希望半岛彻底缓和,因此它对与朝完全和解不感兴趣。

也许是韩国舆论不敢得罪美国,也许是那些人被美国搞得已经不会独立思考,他们向中国要朝鲜弃核,很大程度上找错了对象。韩国不仅没有向美国施压,要求后者与朝鲜就缓解对立相向而行,而且经常在韩美利益并非一致的时候盲从后者,对朝鲜过度舞刀弄棒。

华盛顿和东京都很希望中国挑起解决朝核问题的整个担子,把对朝政策来个180度大转弯,中朝最好成为东北亚新的冲突焦点,把东北亚的大部分风险都吸引过来消耗。可能部分韩国人也挺愿意这样,但这完全不合道理。

中朝关系已经受到朝核问题影响,为促朝鲜弃核,中国实际所做的战略付出比其他方面都高。中国应会继续与国际社会一道对朝进行制裁,但要中国一方扛起本应多方共担的责任,中国既没有义务,实际上也做不到。

要求中国做这做那,自己则拒担责任,轻率地喊打喊杀,要中国一方倾尽真金白银的战略资源,给局势“揩屁股”。美国总是这样,韩国莫跟它学。

韩国最要想清楚,是它更怕朝鲜半岛出现“鱼死网破”,还是美国、日本更怕。它与美日“高度一致”的道理何在?重要的是,单靠无限提升制裁不会有效果,还说不定会带来什么新变数。世界如果真能单靠制裁和军事威胁这种最容易组织的办法就能解决大难题,很多地方早就不这么乱了。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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