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资料图:美军战舰
“新年伊始,南海争端再次浮出水面,中国和美日对立,而东盟各自为政。”韩联社5日称,随着中国在南海新建设的机场上进行试飞,美国和日本都提出强烈批评,但东盟内部对于南海争端却发出截然不同的声音。在东盟成员国中,越南和菲律宾政府分别对外表态,要求中方立即停止类似行动。但柬埔寨认为,南海问题正是由于当事国外的强国介入才导致形势紧张,这实际上是批评美国煽动南海争端,激化矛盾。有分析认为,随着中国持续在南海强化主权,美日菲的军事联合反制行动也会进一步增多,随着美军舰很有可能再次出现在中国南海岛礁12海里以内,今年南海局势有可能陷入恶性循环。
日本《东洋经济》5日称,中国不会在南海纷争中选择军事冲突的道路,而美国希望的是维持现状,美中实际上都在小心地不过度刺激对方,即使是对立关系,也是有节制的对立。而南海周边各国实际上是同床异梦,在南海问题上的权益主张并不一致。
今年南海局势将如何发展?厦门大学(微博)教授庄国土5日对《环球时报》记者说,2015年是南海备受关注的一年。一方面通过岛礁建设,中国在南海的实际存在明显得到加强。这和中国经济全球化加速有密切关系,南海是中国对外贸易的主要通道,对中国至关重要,我们也对这些岛礁拥有主权,维护航道安全,当然无可厚非。另一方面,2015年菲越等国虽然和中国持续有争端,但没有直接对抗冲突,更多的关注点是由美国领头,日本等域外国家参与进来。2016年我们的南海岛礁建设会持续推进,但因为恐怖主义等议题可能会发酵,占美国更多精力,2016年南海问题的尖锐程度相比2015年可能会减弱。
另外一名美国问题专家则对《环球时报》记者表示,美国之前声称每季度都要到南海巡航,它应该考虑一下挑衅中国有什么好处。今年是美国大选年,很多事都会发生,拿中国说事的情况也会经常出现。中国应该做好两手准备,一方面坚决反对外来干涉,保持外交渠道畅通,二是现场也要做好应对准备。
责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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