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美军两型核潜艇同时部署日本
美国《国家利益》12月28日文章,原题:避免与中国战争的丑陋真相 尽管如今IS令华盛顿夜不能寐,然而中国崛起才是让国际关系理论家们纠结的。格雷厄姆·埃里森认为,中国崛起预示“修昔底德陷阱”,约翰·米尔斯海默则警告“中国不可能和平崛起”。看似一场大国冲突迫在眉睫。但是,中国对美国构成威胁,完全是因为美国坚持要主导中国的后院——这其实对美国安全几乎毫无助益。我们若放弃这种战略,冲突危险就会消失。反之,上述可怕预言或成现实。
美国当前的对华策略是一种适度遏制。但遏制战略是很成问题的:它带有不可靠的推定,即中国对美国的地区扩张最有可能的反应是顺从,愿放弃地区雄心。但实际上,这更可能造成紧张的安全困局。
想理解为什么,要尝试从中国的战略视角看世界。安德鲁·纳森等人认为,中国视美国为“最干涉中国内部事务的外国、台湾现状的维护者、东海和南海的最大海军力量,以及中国许多邻国正式或非正式的军事同盟。”中国人认为美国是“修正主义国家,谋求抑制北京的政治影响力和损害中国利益”。
中国感到自己被包围。这并非没根据。美国沿中国海上边缘的存在是高度军事化和挑衅性的,美舰队与地区国家总是进行军演和训练。华盛顿在朝鲜半岛及日本南端有大量驻军……莱尔·戈尔德斯坦认为,目前中国的定位明显是防御性的,但“若北京觉得战略环境大大恶化,这种倾向会改变”。若美国地区军力增加令中国感觉受到威胁,那目前构成防御性外交政策的那些东西,未来可能变得咄咄逼人。
中国并无任何先发制人针对美国及其盟友的主权领土使用武力的迹象,也没威胁切断海上运输线。而美国堪称历来最安全的大国。维持在亚太的军事霸主地位,并不会对我们异常安全的地位增加多少砝码。但这种维持却会付出代价。这意味着本可用于经济等领域的钱被庞大军费开支消耗掉,还存在陷入不必要战争的潜在代价。回应中国崛起,美国应减少而非增加军力部署,缩小美国对地区的承诺,让有能力的盟友自己承担制衡中国的责任。若华盛顿继续扩大在地区的存在以遏制中国崛起,发生冲突的可能性就会上升,还会增加战争以外的连带代价。▲(作者约翰·格拉泽,乔恒译)
责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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