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专家:南海是否走火取决于美国

2015-12-14 09:52:18   环球网

海军军事学术研究所研究员 邢广梅

作为一年一度的重头大戏,2015年12月12日,环球时报社在北京中国大饭店举办主题为“世界纠结中国求索”的2016年会。当天,有百名著名专家学者莅临现场,对2015年备受瞩目的世界局势及中国经济文化等问题展开讨论。海军军事学术研究所的邢广梅研究员就南海问题表示,随着形势发展,2016年,中国南海权益和主张将面临更大“被清晰化”的压力。

邢广梅表示,2016年,中美在南海问题上紧张度存在,但是不可能爆发大的武装冲突。美国会不断加强在这个地区的军事存在,一方面增加自身的兵力部署、加大在这个地区的巡航力度,另一方面也会通过向盟友及友好伙伴关系国提供武器装备,进行联合军演等方式提升这些国家的军事实力,以平衡中国在南海的军事能力建设。

她表示,鉴于美国前不久曾闯入中国南沙岛礁12海里,两国海军目前保持较紧张的态势,未来是否擦枪走火取决于接下来美国的进一步行动以及中国的反应。但总的来说,双方都有意愿进行危机管控。

展望未来南海局势的发展,邢广梅指出,2016年,中国南海权益和主张将面临更大“被清晰化”的压力。她表示,中菲南海仲裁案的进程以及美国等相关国家在南海针对中国主权和海洋权益的挑衅行为,都会增加中国南海权益和主张“被清晰化”的压力,因此,中国2016年面临的挑战之一,就是“是否需要清晰完整地阐述南海权益主张”。

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