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美解析DF26:无法确保航母安全

2015-11-10 10:51:15   环球网

资料图:东风-26亮相阅兵式

美国《国家利益》双月刊网站11月7日发表题为《美国航母必须战斗,否则就会“灭亡”》的文章,作者为戴夫·马宗达,编译如下:

随着中国继续发展反介入/区域拒止(A2/AD)能力,美国海军航母舰队在西太平洋地区受到了越来越多的挑战。中国发展的一些系统包括东风-21D反舰弹道导弹和配备先进的空中发射巡航导弹的轰-6轰炸机。

华盛顿的许多人认为,解决这个问题的方法是加大舰载机联队的飞行距离,这样航母就能离岸1200海里。这个距离可以让航母保持在中国A2/AD武器系统的射程之外。美国海军可以通过发展远程宽频全向隐形无人机来完成这一任务,因为这种飞机可以进入最密集的防空区域。

但是,这种解决方案可能会出现问题。中国人不仅仅能造出射程更远的反舰弹道导弹或巡航导弹。的确,中国人似乎已经做到了这一点,在近几个月展示了东风-26“航母杀手”导弹。美国海军军事学院教授、跨国研究所撰稿人安德鲁·埃里克森在9月份写道,这种新导弹的射程可达2500英里(1英里约合 1.6公里)。

由于中国是在最近纪念二战胜利大阅兵上公开展示东风-26导弹的,因此并不意味着中国拥有为这种武器构成有效杀伤链的全部传感器和网络,但确实意味着公海不像许多人认为的那么安全。如果中国真的有办法定位东风-26最大射程附近的航母打击群,并且有能力向这种武器提供准确的瞄准数据,那就意味着活动半径为1500海里的无人战斗机都无法避免航母受到攻击。

但是,从二战到冷战,航母一直面临各种威胁。A2/AD武器系统威胁只是冷战某些场景的重现。在20世纪80年代,美国海军发展了“外部空战” 概念,以抵挡苏联利用图-22M“逆火”轰炸机、奥斯卡级核导弹潜艇以及装备远程反舰导弹的水面舰艇对航母战斗群发动的联合攻击。尽管这一概念从未在应对苏联真正攻击的战斗中得到证实,但即使在冷战最激烈的时候,美国海军也从未停止计划利用航母作为前线资产。

也许,我们不应试图避开敌人的攻击范围,而应接受一个现实,即与另一个大国发生大规模战争总会面临固有风险。或许五角大楼是时候开始研究在遭受攻击时航母打击群该如何战斗。据一名退役军官称,美国海军可能已经开始研究了。一些美国海军军官似乎认为,他们能够打破中国在西太平洋的防御。正如国会一些议员最近向我表示的,关于无人战斗航空载具的许多讨论纯粹是理论上的,因为实际上,在2030年,能在航母飞行甲板上出现的唯一隐形飞机将是洛克希德- 马丁公司生产的F-35C——没有足够的时间或金钱来部署其他隐形飞机。

可能有办法利用电子战或网络战来打破中国的杀伤链,使得航母打击群可以在东风-26的射程内战斗。一旦这种导弹发射,关键可能就在于海军综合火力控制-制空战斗网络以及航母护航舰的火力上。这可能意味着增加可携带拦截导弹的舰艇或者某种能携带更多导弹的新型舰艇数量。或许最终会结合某种新型海军拦截机,来真正取代当前退役的F-14“雄猫”战斗机。当然,拦截导弹和拦截机造价高昂。

或许并不存在万无一失的方法来保证航母的绝对安全,因为并不是每个敌人都像1991年的伊拉克军队那样不堪一击。美国必须愿意冒在激战中损失航母的风险。否则航母几乎就相当于战列舰,而日德兰海战的结果表明,后者就是昂贵的累赘。

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